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Articles by Ciminelli, Garcia-Mandicó

COVID-19 in Italy: An analysis of death registry data, part II

May 19, 2020

Many countries around the world are finally past the first peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. As restrictions are cautiously being lifted, it is a good time to assess what could be done better if a second wave were to materialise. Two types of policies in particular – social distancing and health care investment – can dramatically affect the human and economic toll of COVID-19. The former reduces contagion but carries high economic and social costs (Toda 2020 and Baldwin 2020). The latter is key to ensure that care is provided to everyone in need (Shiva 2020).
In a recent VoxEU column (Ciminelli and Garcia-Mandicó 2020a), we analysed death registry data for a selected sample of about 1,000 Italian municipalities to shed some initial light on the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. In this

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COVID-19 in Italy: An analysis of death registry data

April 22, 2020

There are still many unknowns about COVID-19. We don’t know its true mortality rate, nor the speed through which it spreads across communities. This lack of evidence complicates the design of appropriate response policies. The case of the UK is illustrative. The government first opted for the bare minimum in terms of mitigation. It then drastically reversed course after micro-simulations by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team showed that that strategy could have resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths (Ferguson et al. 2020).
In a new paper (Ciminelli and Garcia-Mandicó 2020), we source daily death registry data for a sample of 1,161 Italian municipalities in the seven regions most severely hit by COVID-19 (Emilia-Romagna, Liguria, Lombardia, Marche, Piemonte,

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