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Articles by Gollier

Cost-benefit analysis and the Covid vaccination campaign in France

April 9, 2021

The slow development of the vaccination campaign in continental Europe raises critical questions around who should be prioritised in the roll-out, the welfare costs of a delay, and the impact of ‘anti-vaxxers’ and vaccine nationalism. This column uses an age-structured SIR model to addresses these issues with a focus on France. A doubling of the speed of vaccination France achieved in March could reduce deaths in 2021 by a third, while the presence of senior anti-vaxxers may imply around 5,000 additional deaths among the senior pro-vaxxer population (based on 30% of the population refusing the vaccine). Vaccine nationalism is estimated to increase the global death toll by 20%.  

In the absence of efficient vaccines, Europe would face a catastrophic third wave

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Efficient carbon pricing under uncertainty

April 6, 2021

Any global temperature target must be translated into an intertemporal carbon budget and an associated cost-efficient carbon price schedule. This column uses an intertemporal asset-pricing approach to examine the impact of uncertainties surrounding economic growth and abatement technologies on the dynamics of efficient carbon prices. It finds evidence of a positive carbon risk premium and suggests an efficient growth rate of expected carbon prices of around 4% plus inflation. This is lower than the growth rates found in many public reports and integrated assessment models, and justifies a higher carbon price today in order to satisfy the carbon budget.

The EU will come to the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow in November this

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