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Articles by Ha, Kose, Ohnsorge

One-stop source for inflation: A new database

August 17, 2021

Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge 17 August 2021

Policymakers would like inflation to be neither too high nor too low for obvious reasons. Low and stable inflation has generally been associated with faster growth and more stable output and employment whereas both very low and very high inflation have been associated with macroeconomic challenges (Schmidt 2021, Fell et al. 2021, Gersbach 2021). 
Over the past 18 months, global inflation has displayed highly volatile movements (Ha et al. 2021a). During the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020, it registered the most muted and shortest-lived decline of any of the five global recessions over the past half-century. It then recorded the fastest increase since May 2020. The recent volatility

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Inflationary pressures: Likely temporary but challenging for policy design

July 14, 2021

Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge 14 July 2021

Global inflation has been on a roller-coaster ride since the beginning of the global recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline in inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most muted and shortest-lived of any of the five global recessions over the past 50 years. The increase in inflation since May 2020 has been faster and sooner than after previous global recessions, including after the 2009 global recession (Figure 1). 
Looking ahead, as the global economy gradually reopens, monetary and fiscal policies continue to be accommodative to support the global recovery, and pent-up demand may be about to be unleashed in advanced economies. For major advanced economies,

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The great disinflation in emerging and developing economies

April 11, 2019

Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge 11 April 2019

There has been a remarkable decline in inflation since the mid-1970s in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) (Daly and O’Doherty 2018, Ha et al. 2019). Median annual national consumer price inflation has fallen from persistent double digits in the 1970s to about 3% in 2018 (Figure 1). 
Figure 1 Global inflation since the 1970s.
A. Median CPI inflation, by country group.

Note: Median year-on-year consumer price inflation for 29 advanced economies and 123 EMDEs (including 28 low income countries). 
B. Share of advanced economies and EMDEs with inflation below or within target range

Note: All inflation rates refer to year-on-year inflation. Share of 11 advanced economies and 24 EMDEs

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