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Jean Pisani-Ferry

Jean Pisani-Ferry

Jean Pisani-Ferry (born July 28, 1951)[1] is a French economist and public policy expert. He serves currently as Commissioner General for Policy Planning under Prime Minister Manuel Valls.[2] He is also a professor at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin.

Articles by Jean Pisani-Ferry

Europe: en finir avec la politique en silos

October 8, 2019

Projetée dans un monde de rapport de force dont les principaux protagonistes ne séparent pas géopolitique et économie, l’UE va devoir conduire un changement de logiciel culturel, une mutation organisationnelle et un rééquipement opérationnel, explique l’économiste Jean Pisani-Ferry. By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Date: October 8, 2019 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance La nouvelle présidente de la Commission européenne, Ursula von der Leyen, s’est donné pour but de bâtir une Commission géopolitique au service d’une Europe plus stratégique, qui soit capable de s’affirmer dans un monde marqué par l’aiguisement des rivalités.Elle n’aura pas la tâche facile. Car l’Union européenne est ce que l’économiste André Sapir avait appelé un pouvoir morcelé (Fragmented Power: Europe and the

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Thomas Piketty’s New Book: Impressive Research, Problematic Solutions

October 3, 2019

Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century blended history, statistics, and theory. Capital and Ideology his new magnum opus, is long enough (1,200 pages) to lump together several books: a quantitative history of inequality through time and space, from medieval Europe and ancient India to present-day societies; a largely noneconomic theory of social stratification; an investigation into the social roots of current populism; and a political manifesto for the European left.From the extraordinary wealth of its empirical material to the breadth of its cultural scope, and from the rare alliance of statistical precision and literary references to the level of its intellectual and political ambition, there is much to commend in this remarkable book.From a policy standpoint, however, its

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How to ward off the next recession

October 2, 2019

Despite confident official pronouncements, the deteriorating state of the global economy is now high on the international policy agenda. The OECD recently revised down its forecasts to 1.5% growth in the advanced G20 economies in 2020, compared to almost 2.5% in 2017. And its chief economist Laurence Boone warned of the risk of further deterioration – a coded way of indicating a growing threat of recession.Structural shifts in the automobile industry, miserable productivity gains in advanced economies, shrinking spare capacity, and the build-up of financial fragilities would be sufficient causes for concern, even in normal times. But there is more: a combination of cracks in the global trading system and an unprecedented shortage of policy ammunition are adding to the worries.As the OECD

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Questions to the High Representative and Vice-President-designate Josep Borrell

September 30, 2019

Josep Borrell, the incoming High Representative and Vice-President-designate must explain how von der Leyen’s ‘geopolitical Commission’ intends to adapt to a global landscape dominated by an intensifying rivalry between Washington and Bejing. By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Date: September 30, 2019 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance In her mission letter, President-elect von der Leyen emphasises that she wants the next Commission to be a ‘geopolitical Commission’. She envisages a more strategic, more assertive and more united Union in its approach to international relations, and she would like the High Representative / Vice-President to contribute to creating a stronger link between the internal and the external aspects of EU policies so that the external action becomes a

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Collective action in a fragmented world

September 11, 2019

International collective action is in search of a new paradigm. It cannot rely anymore on global binding rules supported by universal institutions. New forms of cooperation have emerged in a number of fields. Europe should equip itself to be an effective player in this new global game. This calls for internal governance reforms. By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Date: September 11, 2019 Topic: Global Economics & Governance The issueThere is a greater need than ever for international collective action. From climate preservation to financial stability and internet security, heightened interdependence calls for common responses to global threats. Obstacles to global collective action are no less formidable. Beyond President Trump’s stance and worldwide concerns over sovereignty, the China-US

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Dousing the Sovereignty Wildfire

September 3, 2019

In time, the current spat between French President Emmanuel Macron and his Brazilian counterpart Jair Bolsonaro regarding the Amazon rainforest may become a mere footnote. But other rows between collective and national interests are sure to erupt, and the world needs to find a way to manage them. By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Date: September 3, 2019 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance PARIS – On the eve of the recent G7 summit in Biarritz, French President Emmanuel Macron described the Amazon rainforest as “the lungs of our planet.” And because the rainforest’s preservation matters for the whole world, Macron added, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro cannot be allowed “to destroy everything.” In reply, Bolsonaro accused Macron of instrumentalizing “an internal Brazilian issue,”

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Retraites : pour la clarté

September 3, 2019

L’économiste regrette, dans sa chronique au "Monde", que les tensions internes au gouvernement aient conduit à s’écarter de la stricte logique d’un système par points. By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Date: September 3, 2019 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance This opinion piece was originally published by Le Monde1993, 2003, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2019 : voici donc venir la sixième réforme des retraites. À coup de changement des règles d’indexation, de recul de l’âge légal et d’augmentation de la durée de cotisation, les cinq premières ont surtout cherché à contenir la hausse du poids des pensions dans le revenu national. Nécessaires du fait la démographie, elles ont été douloureuses : si les hommes nés en 1940 sont partis à 60 ans avec 80% de leur salaire, ceux de 1980 partiront à 64

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The Coming Clash Between Climate and Trade

August 1, 2019

The new leaders of the European Union, who have relentlessly championed open markets, will, ironically, likely trigger a conflict between climate preservation and free trade. But this clash is unavoidable, and how Europe and the world manage it will help to determine the fate of globalisation, if not that of the climate.The incoming president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has laid out a highly ambitious climate agenda. In her first 100 days in office, she intends to propose a European Green Deal, as well as legislation that would commit the European Union to becoming carbon neutral by 2050. Her immediate priority will be to step up efforts to reduce the EU’s greenhouse-gas emissions, with the aggressive new goal of halving them (relative to 1990 levels) by 2030. The

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Farewell, flat world

July 2, 2019

In the last 50 years, the most important economic development has been the diminishing income gap between the richer and poorer countries. Now, there is a growing realisation that transformations in the global economy have been re-established centrally from intangible investments, to digital networks, to finance and exchange rates.

Fifty years ago, the conventional wisdom was that rich countries dominated poor countries, and it was widely assumed that the former would continue to get richer and the latter poorer, at least in relative terms. Economists like Gunnar Myrdal in Sweden, Andre Gunder Frank in the United States, and François Perroux in France warned of rising inequality among countries, the development of underdevelopment, and economic domination. Trade and foreign

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Faut-il s’endetter pour le climat?

July 2, 2019

Jean Pisani-Ferry, soutient qu’il ne faut pas s’interdire de financer une partie du coût de la transition écologique par l’endettement.

This article was published by Le Monde

La déclaration de politique générale d’Édouard Philippe a placé la transition écologique au premier rang des objectifs du gouvernement. Cette inflexion appelle une stratégie économique à sa mesure. Or si Premier ministre a égrené des mesures sectorielles, toutes importantes, il a fait silence sur la fiscalité carbone, qui semble de facto abandonnée, et n’a explicité ni ce que représente l’effort requis par l’ambition qu’il affiche, ni comment nous allons le financer, ni quelles vont être ses conséquences pour le pouvoir d’achat ou l’emploi.
La tension entre fin du monde et fin du mois n’est pourtant pas près

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Europe’s citizens say they want a more political EU

June 4, 2019

The recent European Parliament election suggests that a growing share of European voters sees things differently from national governments. Whereas citizens clearly used their votes to express policy preferences, very few governments are ready for a more political EU leadership.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: June 4, 2019
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

This article was published by Project Syndicate.

The most significant result of the recent European Parliament election is neither that conservatives and social democrats lost seats to Liberals and Greens, nor that far-right nationalists gained less than anticipated. It is that citizens voted in much larger numbers than anyone expected.
From the first popular

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L’euro sans l’Europe : un projet incohérent

May 28, 2019

Jean Pisani-Ferry constate que tous les grands partis ne remettent plus en cause l’euro. Il souligne néanmoins que trois vulnérabilités – économique, politique et internationale – menacent la monnaie unique.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: May 28, 2019
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

De Manon Aubry à Jordan Bardella, les têtes de listes de tous les grands partis en conviennent : l’euro est notre monnaie, pas question d’en changer. Les approximations hasardeuses de Marine Le Pen lors du débat présidentiel de 2017 ont servi de leçon, et seuls des candidats marginaux envisagent désormais une sortie de la monnaie européenne. Vingt ans après sa naissance, elle n’est plus objet de débat mais fait en quelque sorte partie

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When facts change, change the pact

May 1, 2019

“When facts change, I change my mind,” John Maynard Keynes famously said. With long-term interest rates currently near zero, the European Union should reform its fiscal framework to allow member states to increase their debt-financed public investments.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: May 1, 2019
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

The European Union’s Stability and Growth Pact, which sets fiscal rules for its member states, is like the emperor’s new clothes. Almost everyone sees it has none, yet few admit it openly. This disingenuous silence is bad economics and bad politics.
For starters, the pact’s rules are so hopelessly complex that almost no government minister, let alone member of parliament, can decipher them.

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Europe and the new imperialism

April 3, 2019

For decades, Europe has served as a steward of the post-war liberal order, ensuring that economic rules are enforced and that national ambitions are subordinated to shared goals within multilateral bodies. But with the United States and China increasingly mixing economics with nationalist foreign-policy agendas, Europe will have to adapt.

This article was published by Project Syndicate.

Imperialism, Lenin wrote a century ago, is defined by five key features: the concentration of production; the merging of financial and industrial capital; exports of capital; transnational cartels; and the territorial division of the world among capitalist powers. Until recently, only dyed-in-the-wool Bolsheviks still found that definition relevant. Not anymore: Lenin’s characterisation seems

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The case for green realism

March 7, 2019

The transition to a carbon-neutral economy is bound to make us worse off before it makes us better off, and the most vulnerable segments of society will be hit especially hard. Unless we acknowledge and address this reality, support for greening the economy will remain shallow and eventually wane.

The Green New Deal promoted by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a fast-rising star in the US Congress, and others among her fellow Democrats, may trigger a welcome reset of the discussion on climate change mitigation in the United States and beyond. Though not really new – European Greens have been pushing for such a “new deal” for a decade – her plan is ambitious and wide-ranging.
It may be too ambitious and wide-ranging. But, unlike economists’ favourite approach to climate change – set the

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The EU needs a Brexit endgame

January 31, 2019

Britain and the EU must try to preserve the longstanding economic, political, and security links and, despite the last 31 months spent arguing over Brexit, they should try to follow a new path toward convergence.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: January 31, 2019
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

This opinion piece was also published by Project Syndicate

After 31 months of the United Kingdom and the European Union arguing over Brexit, the truth is that neither side knows what it wants.
This sad reality is most obvious in the case of the UK, whose ruling Conservative Party has consistently been at war with itself over the actual meaning of the June 2016 Brexit referendum. After a series of strategic mishaps and tactical

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Fifty shades of yellow

January 10, 2019

Who are the Yellow Vests? What are the true roots of their uprising? And what do they want? Six weeks after they started rocking French politics and a month after violence erupted on the Champs Élysées, these questions are still hotly debated in France.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: January 10, 2019
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

The Yellow Vests are both highly visible and highly enigmatic. Their rebellion started with the occupation of roundabouts all over the country, but it made headlines with violent demonstrations in Paris. They have kept the support of some 70% of the population and three million people signed up on the “Official Yellow Vests Counter” on Facebook, but their protests never exceeded 300,000

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The great macro divergence

December 5, 2018

Global growth is expected to continue in 2019 and 2020, albeit at a slower pace. Forecasters are notoriously bad, however, at spotting macroeconomic turning points and the road ahead is hard to read. Potential obstacles abound.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: December 5, 2018
Topic: Global Economics & Governance

This article was published by Project Syndicate.

“The global expansion has peaked,” the OECD warns in its latest economic outlook, and performance could be weaker if downside risks materialise. The party is not over yet: global growth is expected to continue in 2019 and 2020, though at a slower pace. But forecasters are notoriously bad at spotting macroeconomic turning points, and the road ahead is hard to read.

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Macroéconomie et gilets jaunes

December 4, 2018

Les analyses de la fronde des gilets jaunes ont surtout mis l’accent sur la répartition des revenus et des prélèvements entre catégories sociales et selon le lieu d’habitation. Lecture évidemment pertinente. Mais elle ne doit pas en occulter une autre, qui porte sur les évolutions d’ensemble des dix dernières années et sur ce qu’on peut anticiper pour les dix prochaines.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: December 4, 2018
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Chronique pour Le Monde

Les analyses de la fronde des gilets jaunes ont surtout mis l’accent sur la répartition des revenus et des prélèvements entre catégories sociales et selon le lieu d’habitation. Lecture évidemment pertinente. Mais elle ne doit pas en occulter une

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Euro area reform: An anatomy of the debate

November 5, 2018

A year ago, a group of 14 French and German economists joined forces with the aim of forging common proposals for euro area reforms. Their report gave rise to a lively discussion among officials and academics. This Policy Insight summarises the group’s proposals and also addresses some of the points raised in a subsequent VoxEU.org debate on the topic.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: November 5, 2018
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

The euro is nearly 20 years old – ten quiet years followed by ten tumultuous ones. The end of the first decade was marked by glowing, oddly uncritical reviews. Ten years later, however, complacency has largely vanished from assessments of the state of the euro area and disagreements

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The global economy’s three games

October 29, 2018

In this column, Jean Pisani-Ferry portrays the current international economic and geopolitical order as increasingly reminiscent of chess. Three key players: the US, China and a loose coalition of the other G7 members play three games simultaneously, and no one knows which game will take precedence.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: October 29, 2018
Topic: Global Economics & Governance

Chess masters are able to play simultaneously on several boards with several partners. And the more time passes, the more US President Donald Trump’s international economic strategy looks like such a match.
There are three major players: the United States, China, and a loose coalition formed by the other members of the G7. And there are three

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Should we give up on global governance?

October 23, 2018

While demand for global governance has not diminished, the same cannot be said about support for binding multilateral arrangements. Jean Pisani-Ferry analyses the recent setbacks and explores the potential strategies for global governance to better accommodate the diversity of players, provide for more flexibility and rely less on compulsion.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: October 23, 2018
Topic: Global Economics & Governance

This paper, which partially draws on the author’s Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa inaugural lecture at the EUI, is an updated and augmented version of a contribution to the Hertie School’s Governance Report 2018, published under the title ‘Is global governance passé?’.

The high point of global governance was

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One club does not fit all in Europe

October 2, 2018

In this column, Jean Pisani-Ferry argues how the EU can become a more effective global player, following the Policy Brief "One size does not fit all: European integration by differentiation.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: October 2, 2018
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

“Italy,” a contemptuous Metternich said two centuries ago as the peninsula was split into a myriad of fiefdoms, “is only a geographical expression.” Some in Beijing, Moscow, New Delhi, and even Washington regard Europe the same way. They acknowledge that the European Union matters for trade agreements and currency issues, but considerate it too irresolute to be a real player in today’s global power game, and too divided to cope with security and

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Is Europe America’s Friend or Foe?

July 30, 2018

Since Donald Trump took office as US president, a new cottage industry in rational theories of his seemingly irrational behavior has developed. On one issue, however, no amount of theorizing has made sense of Trump: his treatment of America’s oldest and most reliable ally.

This opinion piece has been published in 

Since Donald Trump became US president in January 2017, his conduct has been astonishingly erratic, but his policies have been more consistent than foreseen by most observers. Trump’s volatility has been disconcerting, but on the whole he has acted in accordance with promises made on the campaign trail and with views held long before anyone considered his election possible. Accordingly, a new cottage industry in rational theories of Trump’s seemingly irrational behavior

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Ubu ou Machiavel?

July 6, 2018

L’administration Trump veut imposer une approche transactionnelle des relations économiques gouvernée par le rapport de force bilatéral en lieu et place du contrat multilatéral. Un défi d’une ampleur inédite pour l’Europe.

Le comportement de l’administration Trump défie la logique. Chacun voit bien que pour les États-Unis, l’enjeu stratégique central est la relation avec la Chine. Celle-ci est un rival géostratégique doublé d’un concurrent économique de plus en plus sérieux, y compris dans ce qui fait le cœur de la compétitivité américaine. Xi Jinping a commencé à formuler une conception des relations internationales alternative à l’ordre libéral dont les États-Unis ont été les promoteurs depuis trois quarts de siècle. Et pourtant M. Trump s’en prend à l’Europe et semble s’être donné

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Can Multilateralism Adapt?

July 3, 2018

Global governance requires rules, because flexibility and goodwill alone cannot tackle the hardest shared problems. With multilateralism under attack, the narrow path ahead is to determine, on a case-by-case basis, the minimum requirements of effective collective action, and to forge agreement on reforms that fulfill these conditions.

FLORENCE – Rewind to the late 1990s. After an eight-decade-long hiatus, the global economy was being reunified. Economic openness was the order of the day. Finance was being liberalised. The nascent Internet would soon give everyone on the planet equal access to information. To manage ever-growing interdependence, new international institutions were developed. The World Trade Organisation was brought to life. A binding climate agreement, the Kyoto

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« Mieux vaudrait laisser les gouvernements libres de tenter les politiques de leur choix »

June 12, 2018

Les peuples ont le droit de faire des erreurs: Selon l’économiste Jean Pisani-Ferry, l’Union européenne doit accepter les aspirations légitimes à des politiques disparates, tout se prémunissant contre la contagion de leur corollaire : la possibilité d’une faillite souveraine.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: June 12, 2018
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

This Opinion was also published in Le Monde

La nouvelle coalition italienne a été élue sur un programme pour le moins risqué qui combine les baisses d’impôts promises par la Ligue aux petits entrepreneurs du Nord et les dépenses sociales promises par le Mouvement 5 Étoiles aux déshérités du Sud. Sur la base d’évaluations indépendantes, le total de ces engagements

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Mattarella’s line in the sand

June 1, 2018

The vital task confronting Europe is to reconcile citizens’ right to make radical choices with the need to ensure that decisions leading to constitutional change are subject to sufficient public deliberation. The EU and the euro must not be constitutional cages; but nor should they be subject to ill-considered decisions.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: June 1, 2018
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

A deep political crisis has erupted in Italy since President Sergio Mattarella’s refusal to appoint Paolo Savona, a declared Euroskeptic, as minister of economy and finance in the coalition government proposed by the leaders of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League, the two anti-system parties that emerged as winners

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The upheaval Italy needs

April 30, 2018

While Italy remains without a new government, it would be foolish to believe that a country where anti-system parties won 55% of the popular vote will continue to behave as if nothing had happened. But political upheavals sometime provide a unique opportunity for addressing seemingly intractable problems. After its political upheaval, Italy now needs an economic one.
By:
Jean Pisani-Ferry
Date: April 30, 2018
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

FLORENCE – Two months after the Italian general election on March 4, amid continuing uncertainty about what kind of government will emerge, a strange complacency seems to have set in. Yet it would be foolish to believe that a country where anti-system parties won 55% of the

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The Lesser Evil for the Eurozone

April 4, 2018

For three decades, the consensus within the European Commission and the European Central Bank on the need for market reforms and sound public finances has been strong enough to overcome opposition in small countries and outlast procrastination in large ones. Today, however, the Eurozone playing field has become a battleground.

It was not supposed to happen like this. The formation of a new German government took so long that it was only after the Italian general election on March 4 resulted in a political earthquake that France and Germany started to work on reforming the eurozone. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron have now resolved to sort out their differences and deliver a joint reform roadmap by July. But they cannot ignore changes brought by

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