Imagine there were a General Election won by Labour. Suppose the Tories delayed their departure from office for 3 years and then, when the opinion polls were ripe, held another General Election to "confirm" the first. Surely no-one would say that this was a democracy.Suppose the Scottish were indeed going to leave the UK then a constitutional referendum were held where the Scottish were the critical factor in the vote. The Scottish then hold a referendum to Leave the UK and depart so that we are left with a constitutional change that the majority do not want. This would hardly be democratic. The correct sequence of events would be a Scottish independence referendum followed by the constitutional referendum.Suppose those in favour of a Second EU Referendum changed the rules so that allRead More »
Articles by J.
There have been two high profile sets of Treasury Predictions during the campaign for independence from the EU. The first predictions were HM Treasury analysis: the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU, these were issued in May 2016 to affect the EU Referendum and the second set of predictions were EU Exit: long term analysis which has been used by MPs to prevent a WTO Brexit.The 2016 predictions are widely accepted as being wrong by those who have studied them. They predicted that GDP would be 6% lower two years after the Referendum (a £120bn loss) and unemployment would rise by 500,000. When we compare UK GDP growth with the other leading EU economies it can be seen to be following a similar trend:
There is no real evidence that the Referendum affected GDP at all. UnemploymentRead More »
Even some of the Remain voters I talk to realise that something has gone wrong with the media over Brexit. The revelations by John Humphrys about BBC bias have been taken seriously by those who were lucky enough to have read them.The fate of the Humphrys’ revelations is typical of bias in the UK media. The revelations were almost entirely suppressed and have scarcely been mentioned by broadcasters since they were published. A leading journalist who is an insider, a Remain supporter and one of the highest paid people in the News Media exposes the BBC as a biased organisation and the revelation is entirely snuffed out.The UK broadcast media works by suppressing the news it does not want us to hear.The broadcast media are very powerful, so powerful that if they are attacked for bias weRead More »
As I suffered yet more BBC and Channel 4 News it felt like I was in China again. The solid mass of anti-independence propaganda was astonishing.We all know from John Humphry’s revelations and the general tenor of the broadcast news that the presenters and journalists are biased in favour of the EU against the UK. What is surprising still is that they have no sense of professional honour. They have no feeling that, as professional journalists and editors they should attempt to be impartial.I have lost confidence in the broadcasters entirely and would encourage people to turn off their TV or radio during news and current affairs. The broadcast media news is propaganda and it is corrupt.The huge problem that this onslaught by the media poses is that the Fourth Estate, the media, is nowRead More »
The Treasury forecasts for the effect of the Referendum on the UK economy are now known to have been wrong. There was no huge economic meltdown due to "uncertainty" in 2017, unemployment has stayed low and inflation is steady. In fact the UK economy has performed better than that of Germany and Italy over the past 3 years. Economics correspondents know this but have have failed to cover it with any prominence.In late 2018 to early 2019 The Bank of England and Treasury/Government produced reports for a "No Deal". The Treasury forecasts were actually quite mild but packaged as the sum of small effects over 12 years that gave a total, imaginary figure of 7.5% fall in GDP. The figure is imaginary because no economist can reliably predict even 2 years ahead.The effects of Brexit were quotedRead More »
Project Fear is targeted at the anxious, it is in the name. Portraying the opponent’s opinions as an absolute catastrophe is a peculiarity of the European Movement, the organisation that runs Remain, they used this technique in the Irish Referendums and are using it to attempt to reverse the EU Referendum in the UK.What effect is it having on people? A Mood of the Nation Report by Britain Thinks shows that the European Movement tactics are having a serious effect on their Remain voter base.
People who are not unduly anxious in their everyday life are likely to spot that the Project Fear about No Deal is just a replay of the separate Project Fear three and a half years ago before the Referendum . The pre-Referendum Project Fear was about uncertainty causing disaster in 2017 and theRead More »
It is now October so current predictions of GDP growth for the July-September quarter (Q3) are fairly secure. July GDP growth was 0.3% according to the ONS and Q3 is likely to be 0.3% for the whole quarter and overall growth 1.3% for the year.The forecast for Germany is 0.5% for 2019. The prediction for France is
1.3% and Italy is 0.1%.
This is surely the most difficult time for the UK economy in half a century but it is a leader amongst the EU big four.The disastrous performance of the German and Italian economies means that the various "No Deal" predictions of how well the UK will perform economically relative to remaining in the EU are utterly out of date. The No Deal predictions are now firmly what they have always been – Project Fear.Read More »
Political Thoughts – the magazine: The Future of Afghanistan
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I consider myself to be a free man. I am voluntarily in this society, I could go elsewhere. What I like about the UK is that there are many other free men.When someone says you cannot steal I work out the problem for myself. I would certainly steal if my family were starving and it was the only option. We decide not to steal according to our own morality, which in my case would only permit theft in extreme circumstances. Morality aside, what stops us from stealing in practice is that those who have possessions usually have some power to protect their possessions. They have the police and physical security on their side. Opposed to my liberty to steal is the power of the powerful in society. Many people do not see the world like this. They maintain that people have the “Right” toRead More »
Something is amiss in the West. A single viewpoint is emanating from much of the media and the upper middle classes. In itself this is not surprising because those who have power have a convergence of interest but what is new is that the upper middle classes are largely from a new sector of society. The increased pay of senior public sector workers and corporate managers means that they are the new upper middle class, ousting those who "live on dividends", lawyers, doctors, the landed rich and entrepreneurs.The views of the governing class are acquired at school and university. Unfortunately university lecturers in the UK have a political profile that is entirely different from that of the population in general in Lackademia: why do academics lean left? it reports that 88% of academicsRead More »
How reasonable is it to use the word "Traitor" when describing a Remain supporter?Remain supporters are offended by the use of the term "Traitor". They believe that when, as Kenneth Clarke said, "the Westminster Parliament is just a council chamber in Europe." , the people of Britain will be happy. They do not believe that they are traitors.
Remain supporters assume that the people of the UK will live in greater prosperity in the EU and that this overrides aspirations such as the ability to regulate the environment and sustainability of the UK by controlling laws about migration and hence population density, agriculture, fisheries, industry, transport energy etc.. How can people who believe they are making us richer think they are traitors?Remain supporters see the integrationRead More »
Today, 24th September 2019, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the current prorogation of Parliament was illegal.The Supreme Court began its ruling with the concept of dividing the process into whether the Court had the power to intervene in a political decision such as prorogation (judiciability) and then, if the Court had the power, to rule on the legality of the prorogation. It backtracked on this and ruled that if a prorogue had a political effect it was unlawful. In other words it ruled that the Courts always have the power to examine prorogation, especially if it involves political considerations (See Note 1). The Court set the precedent that it was empowered to decide political matters: " the court will intervene if the effect [of a prorogue] is sufficiently serious to justify such anRead More »
The problem of Climate Change is how do we fit nine billion or more people on the planet without adverse effects on the climate.The problem of mass extinctions is how do we fit nine billion or more people on the planet without adverse effects on wild life.The problem of pollution, resource depletion etc. etc. is – you have guessed it.The solution to all of these problems as conceived by the media and politicians is to have an infinite number of conferences on how to fit the population into ever smaller boxes with a minimum of motion, food and pollution.There is a revolutionary solution: we could all have smaller families. This solution is obvious: the solution was even contained in the question.This leaves us wondering why population growth is the priority, why the entire world with allRead More »
John Humphrys, the lead presenter of the BBC Radio 4 Today Programme, has just launched a scathing attack on BBC Bias in the Daily Mail (21/9/2019). He says this of the BBC after the EU Referendum:"The morning of the EU Referendum was different. Leave had won – and this was not what the BBC had expected. Nor what it wanted.John Humphrys
No nods and smiles when the big bosses appeared. No attempt to pretend that this was anything other than a disaster. Their expressions were as grim as the look on the face of a football supporter when his team’s star player misses the penalty that would have won them the cup."Humphrys then goes on to say that there were no orders from above, the bias was largely due to editors and presenters such as himself who all supported Remain and knew from the
Sometimes you look at the news and wonder what planet you have been transported to.Our climate change protests are being led by Greta Thunberg, a sweet child but scarcely a professor of meteorology or even a well read science graduate. Why? It is not because she is brilliant or clever, it is because she sells media clicks, views and papers. It is also because she doesn’t know what she is talking about. This ignorance allows "Climate Change" to be hermeticised, sealed off into commercially attractive campaigns for electric cars, new building design and waste management. If we dodge global warming we will eventually get an ice age, what then? Ice sheets over half of Europe will not be popular. (Don’t say that you didn’t know ice ages happen every 50-100,000 years and one is due aboutRead More »
How far are those who support the independence of the UK or those who support remaining in the EU like early Nazis? Who supported the Nazis? In 1933 the Germans elected a coalition government with Hitler as Chancellor. On page 3, right at the beginning of the first book that I turned to on the subject it says of the days immediately after Hitler’s appointment that the Lawyers Association sent congratulations saying it "welcomed the strengthening of national thought and will which had taken place in Germany", the Secondary Teachers Association said that "There is no turning back..we endorse the new departure and want to contribute our share to help it succeed." and engineers and professionals in general all cried out in support .Teachers as a group were especially pro Nazi. It isRead More »
The UK has been in a perfect political and legal storm. It has a minority Government, a Referendum that narrowly supported leaving the EU and a Parliament that overwhelmingly rejects leaving the EU.In normal times the Government would call a General Election but the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 prevents this action. As a result the opposition in Parliament can hold a minority Government hostage. This is absurd and a sign of poorly thought out legislation.Three factors exacerbate the ill-effect of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. The first is that there has been a Referendum that supported leaving the EU, the second is that large numbers of Remain MPs managed to get elected by promising, "hand on heart", that they would implement the Referendum and the third is that a small group ofRead More »
The BBC has recently produced a programme called "Impartial Journalism in a Polarised World", created by James Harding, which discusses how they are being challenged by alternative sources of news. Organisations like the BBC portray themselves as heroes battling against a tide of disinformation but how far is this the truth? The BBC has a special role in providing impartial news because it is financed by License Fees levied on ordinary British people.Unfortunately the BBC had to serve as a propaganda weapon during WWII and the Cold War. The tool that it used was not Fake News but News Suppression. In WWII the principled journalist, George Orwell, resigned from the BBC largely because of this suppression of news. News suppression works by excluding events and views that might encourageRead More »
It has been evident for some time that the EU Referendum would probably be overturned. This is still not certain but likely.Things looked bleak from the very beginning because the government that was to negotiate Leaving had a Remain Prime Minister and a Remain Chancellor. This was not surprising because only about 25% of MPs supported the independence of the UK.If the Referendum is overturned I will continue to support the UK leaving the EU but I fear that the bulk of the population will simply have grown tired of the fight for the the UK to be an independent country.What will the future bring if the Referendum is overturned? It will bring a rapid acceleration of EU Union. The "victors" will see this as the way to ensure that the British will never be able to threaten the EU projectRead More »
All the shenanigans of the past 3 years have explained British politics.The country is split between its main regions and split internally. It is the internal split that is most important and interesting.In the 2016 EU Referendum about half of the population voted to leave the EU and the other half voted to stay in the EU. The political parties in Westminster were split entirely differently:Source: BBC
In the past few days we have learnt that many of the Tory MPs who voted Remain would give up their careers and prefer the country to be governed by a Marxist Labour government rather than leave the EU. People obviously regard the issue of the Independence of the UK as one of great principle.The EU Referendum measured the opinion of the country on this important matter of principle.
In the UK the "racist" sticker is seldom valid. As an example UKIP lost almost all of it’s support after the Referendum because people voted Brexit to leave the EU, not because they were racist. The UK electorate are not particularly racist, unlike the electorate in most of the rest of the EU:
The UK is the least racist of EU countries on the basis of discrimination. On other measures, such as access to housing, many EU countries are 10 times or more worse than the UK. By UK standards the EU is indeed a racist state.See EU Racism is far worse than UK. and The Le Pen Salvini AllianceRationally this means that Remain voters support the UK being part of a racist state. Or do they? The EU Referendum was fought using the advice of Bell Pottinger style
PR companies. (Lord Bell was a
Test your knowledge of Brexit. Tease those Leaver friends.1. When was Parliament last Prorogued?a. Last year
b. 1997 by John Major
c. 16392. Did Nick Clegg say of Russian interference in the EU Referendum:a. "There is no evidence of Russian interference"
b. "Russian involvement invalidates the result"
c. "Russia is threatening our democracy"3. Is UK trade with the EU:a. In deficit by about £60 billion every year
b. In surplus by about £60 billion every year
c. Roughly in balance.4. Is the power of government in the UK largelya. Delegated by the EU to the UK through "shared competences"
b. Ancient and inalienable
c. Protected by veto on most issues5. What is the Treasury prediction of the cost of No Deal, the estimate that is leading MPs to go wild with dismay?a. 0.6% of GDP a year
The BBC suppresses any news that favours leaving the EU.Check these links to find out what the BBC should have told the nation:Imports from CalaisPorts of Entry in NIBarnier preferred Canada Plus Racism in the EUTrade Deficit and RegionalisationCurrent Account DeficitBank of England and Treasury ReportsThe foreign "European Movement" runs RemainThe European Movement, a foreign organisation, controls the UK media, especially the BBC, through its powerful members. It also controls Ofcom’s Charter committee which allows the BBC to suppress news with impunity.That the largely EU financed European Movement controls UK media cannot be in doubt – they control the rest of Remain.Read More »
UK ports imported 248m tonnes of produce and exported 138m tonnes in 2017. (See UK Port Freight Statistics 2017.Click to enlarge.
Dover was responsible for only 26m tonnes of the total 386m tonnes of international freight transported in 2017.Top 10 major ports + All other tonnage
Dover moved 15.5m tonnes inwards and 10.7 m tonnes outwards. Even in the worst case after Brexit the pictures of queuing lorries going into Dover might be impressive for a few weeks but it will have little effect overall on UK trade.The major "fear" expressed in the media for a No Deal Brexit is an alleged inability to import food and other essentials such as medicines. This will depend nearly entirely on the speed with which the Port Authorities inspect incoming freight at Dover and other ports. In principle
The division in British society that is crudely marked by the Remain/Leave division has been present since the Second World War. It is not a new phenomenon.In the 1950s and 1960s Britain was a nakedly classist society and the classism worked both ways. Working class people despised middle class people and vice versa. The average factory was the scene of simmering resentment to such an extent that factory managers would threaten workers with the sack for insubordination if they suggested improvements.Society was divided into working people and those who believed working people were threatening and ignorant. In the 1950s the middle class zeitgeist was still that there was opportunity to manage business and pursue a profession overseas in the empire and Commonwealth so the British workingRead More »
This article will provide clear, click through links to all of its source data. Click on these links whenever you feel that you must check a source.First of all, what are the current economists’ predictions for the UK economy for 2019 to 2020?
These predictions are all sourced, click on the links below to check them: PwC Economic Outlook July 2019 (includes Q2 2019).BCC: British Chambers of Commerce includes Q1 2019.Bank of England August – see p 30 and p33.KPMG Growth ForecastOBR Economic OutlookIMF World Economic Outlook Table 1.European Commission: Euro Area GrowthWhat? No cliff-edge disaster catastrophe armageddon for a No Deal Brexit? Of course not. The economists all got burnt in 2016 with predictions for immediate UK recession after the EU Referendum and most don’t want to do itRead More »
The graphs below summarise the current state of the UK economy:
The central, grey line is the Purchase Power Parity (PPP) of the pound – what it is really worth in the UK to buy things, this is the real value of the pound. The coloured lines show when the $ value of the pound is 20% out of kilter with the PPP value and speculators will all start buying pounds to make a killing on the markets. Recent talk by economics journalists about the value of sterling is largely propaganda about Brexit. The graphs below show why the PPP value has been falling:
Much of the trade and current account losses go to the EU, especially Germany.
Despite these dreadful figures the UK has been under the same economic cloud as most of the rest of the major EU economies (except Germany): [embeddedRead More »
There has been a great deal about the "terrible" effects of Brexit on the Welsh lamb industry. What is the truth?Only about 30-40% of Welsh sheep meat is exported:
The Welsh sheep industry was worth c.£278m to the Welsh economy in 2018.
Only about £70m of meat of all types is exported by Wales:
So the Welsh sheep meat industry is likely to need less than £35 million a year to entirely subsidise 100% of its exports to the EU.Given that, after a WTO Brexit there will be billions paid by EU food exporters to the UK in tariffs the total subsidy to Welsh farmers would be a tiny amount and easily affordable. The government should act quickly to reassure Welsh sheep farmers. Media sources that fail to mention that Welsh sheep meat is a tiny issue in the context of Brexit are simplyRead More »
Prior to considering any of the predictions for a No Deal Brexit it is worthwhile to get a sense of perspective about the role of the EU in the UK economy.
In 2016 exports to the EU constituted only 12% of UK GDP. ( See Exports of Goods and Services to EU28 (L84Y), Exports of Goods and Services Total (ikbh). ) Bear this in mind when you hear estimates of Brexit reducing GDP by 15% or more, they are clearly just trying to scare you. The UK is not a "great trading nation" nowadays, most UK GDP is generated by the internal economy, not by International Trade. Several groups of economists (such as Rabobank and HM Treasury) have got so carried away with their negative predictions that they have failed to check whether they still fit with any plausible reality. Unfortunately journalistsRead More »
Six good things about the UK. We have been at peace for almost 85 years apart from minor skirmishes. Education until the age of 18 and healthcare is free, it is not in many countries, including many communist countries. Britain still has some glorious landscapes gardened by centuries of stability. Crime is rare over much of the country. We can start our own businesses and liberate ourselves from direct control of our working lives. We still have substantial remnants of free speech.Six bad things about the UK.The Media Industry is rampant so that many live through media. The efficiency and funding of government services is always being compromised by government and management. The built environment is perpetually expanding. Communitarianism and Corporatism, which is the path toRead More »