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Three steps to stop the health crisis turning into the biggest emerging market debt crisis

19 days ago

Three steps to stop the health crisis turning into the biggest emerging market debt crisis
There is no discernible trade-off between health and GDP outcomes in 2020 (Figure 1). That’s one unenviable choice governments were saved from having to make. The economic impact of COVID-19 was highly differentiated, it was not just driven inversely to health outcomes. Early GDP estimates suggest that except for a few fragile states, factors driving GDP in 2020 were the degree to which countries were hit by the global cessation of trade, travel, foreign direct investment, and the degree to which they had the policy space to offset a widespread economic shutdown (Arezki et al. 2021).  
Figure 1 Economic decline in the second quarter of 2020 vs rate of confirmed deaths

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Debt, natural disasters, and special drawing rights

March 17, 2021

The Trump administration’s denial of climate change slowed down international progress at a critical juncture. But not all failure to act can be laid at the door of one country. The international community as a whole abandoned the commitment to cap the increase in the average global temperature to 1.5°C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2018). One critical reason is that while all of humanity will be affected by climate change, the initial impact is highly differentiated.
Many see climate change as a future threat, not a present reality. Meanwhile, those that climate change has already hit hard are falling under the radar. Old measures of vulnerability focus on past income per capita levels. We don’t need a new reason to deviate from conventions that hinge on gross

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Three changes to the regulatory framework for renewable energy to help save humanity’s future

February 23, 2021

Three changes to the regulatory framework for renewable energy to help save humanity’s future
The travel shut down in the wake of the spread of Covid-19 will provide but a temporary pause in the rise of global temperatures. Despite pledges by countries to avoid it, the prediction by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that average temperatures will rise 1.5 ºC from pre-industrial levels by 2030 will be likely still met (IPCC 2018). By abandoning this cap, the international community has signed the death warrant of low-lying communities between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn threatened by rising sea levels and more ferocious cyclones. 
A 1.5 ºC rise in average temperature will set in train reactions that will impact all, and there is little

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