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Silvia Merler

Silvia Merler

Silvia Merler, an Italian citizen, joined Bruegel as Affiliate Fellow at Bruegel in August 2013. Her main research interests include international macro and financial economics, central banking and EU institutions and policy making.

Articles by Silvia Merler

The stock market slide

6 days ago

The stock market dropped last week, leading to questions and debates as to the underlying reasons. We review economists’ views on the issue.

John Cochrane has a long explanatory post on “stock gyrations”, where he examines in depth stock prices, price dividend ratio, rates, risk premium and volatility. The question before us is, are long-term real rates finally rising – back to something like the historical norm that held for centuries – and if so why? The good story, Cochrane argues, is that we are entering a period of higher growth. This would raise real growth, with a small stock price decline, but higher stock returns and bond returns going forward. The bad story is that, having passed a tax cut that left untouched will lead to trillion-dollar deficits, congressional leaders just

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Economies of States, Economies of Cities

13 days ago

Both in Europe and the US, economists are starting to notice how the economies of cities have been sometimes diverging from the economies of states. While some areas thrive, others may be permanently left behind. Maybe it is time to adopt a more clearly sub-national perspective. We review recent contributions on this issue.

In this week’s Free Lunch, Martin Sandbu makes the very interesting claim that “all economics is local”, and that sustainability of economic strategies depend on their local effects. Many studies show that intensifying economic vulnerability at the local or regional level is closely associated with anti-establishment votes for political disruption or for extremist or populist parties. The deindustrialisation that rich countries have undergone at the hands of

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Bank liquidation in the European Union: clarification needed

January 10, 2018

Critical functions and public interest. What role do they play in Member States’ decision to grant liquidation aid? The author of this paper looks at how resolution and liquidation differ substantially when it comes to the scope of legislation applicable to the use of public funds and how the diversity in national insolvency regimes is a source of uncertainty about the outcome of liquidation procedures.
By:
Silvia Merler
Date: January 10, 2018
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Under the current European Union frameworks for dealing with banking problems, resolution of banks is seen as an exception to be activated only if liquidation under national insolvency proceedings would not be warranted. This is most

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Abenomics, five years in

January 8, 2018

Five years have passed since Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzō Abe was elected in 2012 and started “Abenomics”, a macroeconomic package based upon the “three arrows” of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms. After five years, has Abenomics worked? We review recent opinions.

The Economist points out that five years later, Japan’s currency is about 30% cheaper in dollar terms than it was in November 2012 and the Nikkei 225 stock-market index is up by more than 150%. That has provided some of the intended stimulus to the economy, and Japan’s GDP has risen for seven quarters in a row, its longest spell of uninterrupted growth for 16 years. Exports contributed a lot to the increase, but private investment has also grown by more than 18% in nominal terms over the past five

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Critical functions and public interest in banking services: Need for clarification?

December 18, 2017

What is the role that the concepts of critical functions and public interest play in Member States’ decision to grant liquidation aid? Silvia Merler looks at the recent liquidation of two Italian banks to show how resolution and liquidation differ substantially when it comes to the scope of legislation applicable to the use of public funds.
By:
Silvia Merler
Date: December 18, 2017
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

This material was originally published in a paper provided at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament and commissioned by the Directorate-General for Internal Policies of the Union and supervised by its Economic Governance Support Unit (EGOV). The

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The Republican Tax Plan (2): The debate rumbles on

December 18, 2017

Reactions to the Republican tax plans continue, concentrating on different aspects of the proposed legislation. We review the latest contributions.

Robert Barro writes on Project Syndicate that by reducing the costs of investments and cutting the tax rate on corporate profits, the final plan that emerges will likely boost growth substantially. His conclusion is based on three likely changes to the taxation of businesses (which he treats as permanent, in his analysis): (i) a reduction of the main tax rate on profits of C-corporations from 35% to 20%; (ii) a replacement of the current system of depreciation allowances for new equipment with immediate 100% expensing; (iii) the shortening of the recovery period for most non-residential business structures, such as office buildings, from

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The DSGE Model Quarrel (Again)

December 11, 2017

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models have come under fire since the financial crisis. A recent paper by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Trabandt – who provide a defense for DSGE – has generated yet another wave of reactions in the economic blogosphere. We review the most recent contributions on this topic.
By:
Silvia Merler
Date: December 11, 2017
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

A recent paper by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Trabandt (C.E.T.) on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models (DSGEs) has generated quite a reaction in the blogosphere. In the paper, C.E.T. argue that pre-crisis DSGE models had shortcomings that were highlighted by the financial crisis and its aftermath. But over the past 10 years,

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The Bitcoin Bubble

December 4, 2017

The price of bitcoin has just passed $11,000. A year ago it was worth less than $800. Economists and commentators are thus increasingly concerned that this may be a bubble waiting to burst. We review recent opinions on the topic.

The price of Bitcoin has reached and passed $11,000, from $800 just one year ago (Figure 1). The Economist’s Buttonwood’s notebook thinks that while the stock market has been trading at high valuations for some time, there is nothing like the excitement about shares that there was during the dotcom bubble of 1999-2000. That excitement has shifted to the world of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. There are three strands to their appeal: the limited nature of supply; fears about the long-term value of fiat currencies in an era of quantitative easing;

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Has the Phillips curve disappeared?

November 21, 2017

The Phillips curve prescribes a negative trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Economists have been recently debating on whether the curve has disappeared in the US and Europe. We report some of the most recent views.

The Economist argues that the Phillips curve may be broken for good, showing a chart of average inflation and cyclical unemployment for advanced economies, which has flattened over time (Figure 1). The Economist also refers to a recent paper by three economists at the Philadelphia Fed, arguing that the Phillips curve is not very useful at forecasting inflation: their Phillips curve models’ forecasts tend to be unconditionally inferior to those from a univariate forecasting model. Phillips curve forecasts appear to be more accurate when the economy is weak and

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Powell’s Federal Reserve

November 13, 2017

With the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Fed’s chairman, President Trump break a tradition of bipartisan re-nomination and chooses someone who is not an economy by formation. We review economist’s opinions on this choice and the challenges ahead.

Kenneth Rogoff argues that with the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair, Donald Trump has made perhaps the most important single decision of his presidency. It is a sane and sober choice that heralds short-term continuity in Fed interest-rate policy, and perhaps a simpler and cleaner approach to regulatory policy. Powell will face some extraordinary challenges at the outset of his five-year term. By some measures, stock markets look even frothier today than they did in the 1920s and with today’s extraordinarily low

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The Bank of England’s dovish hike

November 6, 2017

For the first time since 2007, the Bank of England raised interest rates, with a hike of 25 basis points. At the same time, it provided forward guidance that outlines a very gradual path for future increases. We review the economic blogosphere’s reaction to this decision.

By:
Silvia Merler
Date: November 6, 2017
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Chris Giles at the FT says that the Bank has questions to answer: about its reasoning; about the UK’s economic prospects; and about the way it communicates the future outlook for interest rates. For most of this year, City economists have converged on the view that in light of Brexit, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would not touch interest rates until late 2018 or

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The capital tax cut debate

October 30, 2017

How much do workers gain from a capital gains tax cut? CEA chairman Hasset claims the tax cut will cause average household labour income to increase by between $4000 and $9000. Several commentators note this implies that more than 100% of the incidence of the tax is on labour. This question has triggered a heated discussion in the economic blogosphere, which we review here.

Former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Jason Furman writes on Twitter that “the economic debate about the %age of the corporate tax paid by labour ranges from 0% to 100%. The new CEA study puts it at 250%.” Larry Summers writes in the Washington Post that White House Chief Economist Hasset’s claim that cutting the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent would raise wages by $4000 per

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Bailout, bail-in and incentives

October 23, 2017

Ever since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, more and more rules have been developed to reduce the public cost of banking crises and increase the private sector’s share of the cost. We review some of the recent academic literature on bailout, bail-in and incentives.

Some early literature correlated the likelihood of systemic crises to banks’ anticipation of bailouts. Leitner (2005) develops a model of financial networks in which linkages not only spread contagion but also induce private sector bailouts, where liquid banks bail out illiquid banks because of the threat of contagion. Linkages can thus be optimal ex ante because they allow banks to obtain some form of mutual insurance even if formal commitments are impossible. However, in some cases, the whole network may

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On the cost of gun ownership

October 11, 2017

On 1 October 2017, 59 people were killed and another 489 injured in what is currently the deadliest mass shooting in US modern history. The author reviews recent contributions on the economic cost of gun violence, as well as the impact of regulation.

The Washington Post makes the math of mass shootings.There is no universally accepted definition of a mass shooting, and different organizations use different criteria. The Post piece uses a narrow definition and looks only at deadliest mass shootings, beginning August 1, 1966. Based on this criteria, they identify 131 events in which four or more people were killed by a lone shooter (or two shooters in three cases). An average of eight people died during each event, taking the total death toll to 948. It’s worth checking out the Post’s

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The Economics of Healthcare

October 2, 2017

Healthcare reform has been a thorn in the side of the US administration for several months, prompting President Trump to declare that “Nobody knew that healthcare could be so complicated.” We review recent economists’ views on the issue.

Greg Mankiw  argues that healthcare is so complicated because the magic of the free market sometimes fails us when it comes to this sector, for several reasons. First, externalities abound. When a new treatment is discovered, for example, that information enters society’s pool of medical knowledge, but without research subsidies or an effective patent system, too few resources will be devoted to research. Second, when people get sick, they often do not know what they need and sometimes are not in a position to make good decisions. The inability of

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The Fed’s Unwinding

September 25, 2017

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held short-term interest rates steady on September 20th and announced that starting from October 2017 the Fed will gradually shrink its balance sheet, which grew considerably in response to the Great Recession. We review economists’ views on this move.

Joseph Gagnon at PIIE thinks that the unexpected development was a further reduction in the median view of FOMC participants about where the short-term interest rate will settle in the long run. The Fed apparently endorses the view that the slowdowns in the growth rates of productivity and the working-age population have persistently lowered both the economy’s potential growth rate and the rate of return on investment. Shrinking the balance sheet will tighten financial conditions because it will

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Global Imbalances

September 21, 2017

The recent IMF’s External Sector Report highlighted the persistence of imbalances and a switch of imbalances towards advanced economies. We review recent contributions on this topic.

The IMF’s 2017 External Sector Report shows that global current account imbalances were broadly unchanged in 2016. Overall excess current account imbalances (i.e., deficits or surpluses that deviate from desirable levels) represented about one-third of total global imbalances in 2016, increasingly concentrated in advanced economies. Persistent global excess imbalances suggest that automatic adjustment mechanisms are weak. While the rotation of excess imbalances toward advanced economies likely entails lower deficit-financing risks in the near term, the increased concentration of deficits in a few

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North Korea: sanctions and marketization from below

September 11, 2017

What’s at stake: despite Western sanctions, North Korea has been in the news all summer. The country was in the spotlight for the death of American student of Otto Warmbier in June, and for the frequent missiles tests in July and August. We review recent contributions on the impact of economic sanctions.

The Economist argues that Western sanctions have not had much effect on North Korean economy, which is probably growing at between 1% and 5% a year. The UN has attempted to block the country’s access to hard currency by capping the amount of coal it can export, and China, the buyer in 99% of North Korea’s reported coal sales, said that it would suspend all imports. Yet North Korean vessels have continued to dock at Chinese coal ports. Moreover, countries or individuals that help

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Hurricane Harvey’s economic impact

September 4, 2017

What’s at stake: tropical storm Harvey has caused unprecedented and catastrophic flooding in southeastern Texas. We review recent estimates of the economic impact of this natural disaster.

Are natural disasters becoming more expensive? Back in 2012, the IMF released a study finding that over the previous two years, 700 natural disasters were registered worldwide affecting more than 450 million people. Damages were estimated to have risen from $20 billion on average per year in the 1990s to about $100 billion per year during 2000–10. The Economist also has an interesting chart showing how the number of weather-related disasters is increasing but the death toll is decreasing (see below).
Figure 1

NASA’s Earth Observatory points out that natural disasters may be getting more

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Africa and Chinese rebalancing

August 28, 2017

What’s at stake: China and Africa have developed close economic ties over the past 20 years. The need to rebalance the China-Africa relationship was also a prominent topic in the context of the recent Kenyan elections. But if the drivers will shift relatively more towards domestic consumption, what will the impact be on Africa? We review recent contribution to this debate.

Chen and Nord in a recent IMF paper document that Africa’s commodities exports have fallen as a result of the decline in Chinese demand and the precipitous fall in world commodity prices, putting pressure on the scale and external accounts of many African countries. Beyond commodity prices, the rebalancing of China’s growth model from investment-led to consumption-led growth is expected to affect the country

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The issue of U.S. prescription drug prices

August 24, 2017

What’s at stake: Americans spend a lot on prescription drugs, more per capita than any other country by far. Individual cases of sharp price increases – like the case of the EpiPen – have recently driven attention to this issue. We report review contributions on this topic.

The Hutchins Center and Center on Health Policy at Brookings has a good explainer of the facts. In 2015, the U.S. spent $325 billion on retail prescription drugs, equivalent to 1.8% of GDP, or 10% of total national health expenditures. Spending has grown considerably since the 1980s (Figure 1) and the U.S. spends substantially more per capita than other countries. According to the OECD, the U.S. spent $1,112 on retail pharmaceuticals per person in 2014, while the next highest spender was Canada, at $772,

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The US Antitrust Counter-Revolution

July 31, 2017

Plenty of recent research has highlighted a rise in concentration in the US economy, across different sectors. Economists are now wondering to what extent this is attributable to a shift in the antitrust enforcement philosophy. We review contributions to this debate.

In a new paper in the Washington Center for Equitable Growth’s series on antitrust policy, John E. Kwoka of Northeastern University documents the rise in concentration and examines the evidence for one possible explanation: the change in merger enforcement policy at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice.
Examining FTC merger enforcement data from 1996 through 2011, Kwoka finds that merger enforcement narrowed its focus to mergers at the very highest levels of

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The international effects of ECB’s monetary policy

July 24, 2017

What’s at stake: the literature on monetary policy spillovers is abundant of studies investigating the impact of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcements and actions on emerging market economies. More recently, economists have been investigating the effect of the ECB’s credit easing as well.
By:
Silvia Merler
Date: July 24, 2017
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

In a recent speech, ECB’s Executive Board Member Benoit Coeuré discussed the international effects of the ECB’s asset purchase programme. The data show a turnaround in capital flows in the Euro Area from net inflows to net outflows starting in mid-2014, after the ECB announced its credit easing package. Asset purchase programmes are shown

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The US retail crisis

July 17, 2017

What’s at stake: America is undergoing a retail sector crisis, partly related to the increase of competition from online commerce. We review recent contributions to this debate.

The New York Times has some interesting data visualisation about the growth of e-commerce jobs and the decline of retail sectors employment (Figure 1). Online shopping accounts for only 8.4 percent of all retail sales in the United States, but it has had an outsize effect on the retail workforce. The Financial Times has a graphical review of the recent stock market sell-off on retail department stores, spurred by mounting concerns about the effects of online competition.
Figure 1

A related question would be what the implications are, not only for retailers and retail-property companies, but also for the

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The forward guidance paradox

July 10, 2017

What’s at stake: the term “forward guidance” is used in economic jargon to describe central bank communications about the likely future path of policy rates. Standard monetary models imply that far future forward guidance has huge effects on current outcomes, and recent literature has been trying to reconcile this with reality.
By:
Silvia Merler
Date: July 10, 2017
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Negro, Giannoni and Patterson empirically document the impact of forward guidance announcements on a broad cross section of financial markets data and professional forecasts. They find that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements containing forward guidance had heterogeneous effects depending on the

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A tangled tale of bank liquidation in Venice

June 26, 2017

What can we learn about the Italian banking sector from the decision to liquidate Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza? Silvia Merler sees a tendency for Italy to let politics outweigh economics.

The long and troubled journey of Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza (BPVI) has come to an end. The conclusion of the story highlights once again a pattern that has characterised the Italian approach to banking problems over the past years. The distinctive features of this approach are a desire to postpone solutions to long-lived problems (like MPS) and a tendency to subordinate economic to political logic. This raises questions at both the Italian and the EU level.
Veneto and BPVI were due to launch a capital raise in April 2016. If the operation had failed – as it was widely

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The US 100% renewables dispute

June 26, 2017

What’s at stake: Two years ago, a debate started on whether it would be feasible for the US to achieve 100% renewable energy power. The arguments on both sides have been fierce, and more has been written recently. We review the debate.

In 2015, Mark Jacobson and his colleagues at Stanford argued that it would be technically feasible for the United States to be entirely powered by clean energy sources, between 2050 and 2055. One factor currently inhibiting the large-scale conversion to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) power for all purposes (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) is fear of grid instability and high cost due to the variability and uncertainty of wind and solar. Jackobson et al. conducted numerical simulations of time- and space-dependent

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The Fed’s problem with inflation

June 19, 2017

What’s at stake: the Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate by one-quarter of a percentage point. The moved surprised no one, but it still prompted economists to asks themselves questions about the Fed’s relationship with inflation. We review the most recent contributions.

Joseph Gagnon at PIIE argues that the FOMC meeting offered three unexpected items. First, Chair Yellen pointed to “one-off” development in the prices of mobile phone service plans and pharmaceuticals in March, as the main reason the FOMC’s preferred measure of inflation has moved away from its 2 percent target to 1.5 percent as of April. Gagnon wonders whether the FOMC is revisiting the bad old days of the 1970s, when it tried to explain away inflation that was too high by pointing to a seemingly

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The Universal Basic Income discussion

June 12, 2017

What’s at stake: the concept of a Universal Basic Income (UBI), an unconditional transfer paid to each individual, was prominent earlier this year when Finland announced a pilot project. It’s now back in the discussion as the OECD published a report illustrating costs and distributional implications for selected countries. We review the most recent contributions on this topic.
By:
Silvia Merler
Date: June 12, 2017
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

The OECD recently published a policy brief and a methodological note looking into the cost and benefits of adopting Basic Income (BI) as a policy option. The simplest way of introducing a BI would be to take existing cash benefits paid to those of working age and to

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The Mariel Boatlift Controversy

June 5, 2017

What’s at stake: how does immigration affect the wages of local workers? One way to answer this question is by exploiting a natural experiment. The Mariel boatlift of 1980 constituted an ideal experiment – bringing a sudden and large increase of low-skilled workers in just one city – but results are still hotly debated.

In 1980, 125,000 mostly low-skill immigrants arrived in Miami from Mariel Bay, Cuba (“Mariel Boatlift”) in the space of a few months. In 1990, David Card investigated the effects of the boatlift on the Miami labour market. The Mariel immigrants increased Miami labour force by 7%, and the labour supply to less-skilled occupations and industries by even more, because most of the immigrants were unskilled. Nevertheless, Card concluded that the Mariel influx had

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