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Articles by Uri Dadush

A matter of life and death: governments must speed up vaccination

January 13, 2021

COVID-19 vaccination in Europe and the United States is moving too slowly and is failing to prevent avoidable death and economic disruption. More must be done to accelerate the campaign by targeting those most at risk.
Getting vaccines into the arms of the right people, those most at risk of dying from the disease, could radically reduce the death rate from COVID-19 within months. It would also normalise the situation in hospitals, trigger a swifter economic recovery than is widely anticipated, and dramatically reduce the need for borrowing by governments that future generations will have to repay. Vaccination has become even more urgent as new, more infectious strains of the virus have spread to dozens of countries.
Unfortunately, the United States has vaccinated only 309,000 people (or

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Happy New Year?

December 23, 2020

A recovery from the COVID-19 recession is underway though the suffering is far from over, especially for the most vulnerable. Inequality is both a consequence of the pandemic and a cause of its severity. Many countries need comprehensive policy change to address its worst effects.
At the end of a tragic year marked by pandemic and increased poverty, the miraculously rapid arrival of vaccines stirs great hope. The COVID-19 recession will be remembered as one of unprecedented severity but also, with some luck, as one that was short-lived across many parts of the world. It looks like 2021 will be a much better year for the economy and will also mark the turning point, though not the end, of the health crisis. The crisis has accelerated technologies, such as genetic engineering, and methods,

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The impact of the new Asian trade mega-deal on the European Union

November 19, 2020

Although the economic implications of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) for the EU are modest, the geopolitical and strategic implications are not. With the arrival of a new US administration and the central role of China in the bloc, the EU needs to outline an Asian commercial strategy that reconciles the importance of China and the transatlantic relationship.
The 15 November agreement to form the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) between the 10 members of ASEAN and Australia, China, Japan, Korea and New Zealand has only modest immediate economic effects for the European Union.  However, with China playing a central role in the new arrangement, the long-term strategic and geopolitical implications are major. Europeans tend to look inwards and when

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Can the global recovery be sustained even as the pandemic rages?

July 16, 2020

The global economy is showing signs of recovery from the economic crisis caused by COVID-19, though the spread of the coronavirus is accelerating in some countries. In this circumstance, policymakers must weigh up the trade-offs involved in dealing with the pandemic while easing lock downs and sustaining economic activity. Differences in age structures, urbanisation rates and other factors will inform decision making in different countries.
The incidence of new cases of COVID-19 might be declining in Wuhan, Bergamo, Madrid, and New York – at different times the epicentres of the disease – but many experts believe that these are still the early days of the pandemic. At this writing, cases are growing at the exponential rate of 1.5% a day, implying a further doubling of cases by late August.

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A Fear of Regime Change is Slowing the Global Economy

October 25, 2019

Why did such a sharp and steady slowdown occur against a background of loose monetary policy, supportive fiscal policy, low inflation and absence of evident large imbalances? As argued in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report issued last week, the evidence points to uncertainty over trade tensions as a major contributor.Global GDP has slowed sharply, from near 4% in late 2017 to half that rate on an annualised basis in recent quarters. The downturn in fortunes over the last two years has come as a big surprise. The rapid expansion of 2016/2017 was broad-based but died young. Manufactured goods slowed far more than services. Investment slowed even as consumption remained solid. And world trade has decelerated massively, from growth of nearly 6% in 2017, to zero over the last year, a very

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What is in store for the EU’s trade relationship with the US ?

May 16, 2019

If faced with a resurgent President Trump after the next US election, the EU will have some difficult decisions to make as it is compelled to enter a one-sided negotiation. Failure to strike a deal will imperil the world’s largest trade relationship and contribute to the progressive unravelling of the rules enshrined in the World Trade Organization – although the changes required of Europe by Trump’s demands may ultimately turn out to be in the interest of Europeans.

The drama surrounding the trade talks between China and the United States does not bode well for Europe’s efforts to defuse the crisis in its own relations with its most important ally and trading partner.
On April 15, the Council accorded the Commission negotiating authority to proceed on trade negotiations with the

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Implications of the escalating China-US trade dispute

May 14, 2019

If allowed to escalate, the trade dispute between China and the United States will significantly increase the likelihood of a global protectionist surge and a collapse in the rules-based international trading system. Here the author assesses the specific impacts on the Chinese and US economies, as well as the strategic problems this dispute poses for Europe.

President Trump’s decision to increase tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion-worth of imports from China, and his threat to do the same to the other $300 billion-worth of US imports from China which have not been penalised so far, marks a new and dangerous phase in the deterioration of international trade relations since his election in 2016.
China has just announced retaliation on $60 billion-worth of imports from the United

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Can the emerging economic powers govern the globe?

April 4, 2019

Can a G7 dominated by developing nations provide the impulse to global governance as did the old G7? The answer is no.

What a difference ten years can make. It was nearly ten years ago when, in a paper written with Benn Stancil and titled “The World Order in 2050,” he and I predicted that by 2030 — in 11 years from now — five of the seven largest economies of the world would be drawn from the ranks of developing countries as defined by the World Bank at the time of our writing.
As we believed then, only the United States as No. 2 and Japan as No. 4 would represent the advanced countries among the new G7 (as measured by their respective GDP), with Japan dropping out of that group in 2050.
China, we predicted, would be the world’s largest economy, and India would be No. 3. The other

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U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs: how should the EU respond?

March 9, 2018

President Trump and his trade team are set on a path of protectionism and economic nationalism. Trump’s intended measure raises four issues for the EU: the effect on European industry; how to deter Trump’s broader protectionist thrust; how to use the WTO Dispute System in this case; and, how to prepare for the contingency of a post-WTO or truncated-WTO world.

President Trump’s proclamation that, because of national security concerns, he will apply a 25% tariff on all steel and a 10% tariff on all aluminium imports into the United States – except provisionally and dependent on NAFTA negotiations those from Canada and Mexico – affects, respectively 5.1 billion Euros and 1.1 billion Euros of EU exports. These are not trivial sums. However, the invocation of the national security

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Moroccan job market issues, and labour trends in the Middle East and North Africa

December 7, 2017

Morocco is an interesting case of structural labour market disequilibrium despite respectable growth, and illustrates the issues facing the region’s oil-importer countries

One cannot speak of a common jobs problem across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The countries at war – Syria, Yemen, Libya – are, of course, each a story in themselves. Some countries not at war, notably Lebanon and Jordan, have seen huge inflows of refugees that have created large downward pressures on wages, especially in the low-skilled informal sector.
The remaining countries can be divided into two main groups. The energy importers such as Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, have been unable to create sufficient jobs, especially for the young, and are the source of large diasporas. In contrast, the

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The economic effects of refugee return and policy implications

November 14, 2017

This paper looks at the question of returning asylum seekers and refugees from the economic perspective in the advanced countries that receive refugees: is return in their economic interest?
Uri Dadush
Date: November 14, 2017
Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

According to the European Union over a million rejected asylum seekers have been ordered to return to their country of origin from Europe alone, or will be soon. To these could be added refugees that have been given temporary shelter but who could be asked to return once conditions in their home country improve. The debate on returning asylum seekers and refugees is nearly always cast in political, legal and humanitarian terms. This paper looks at

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The future of globalization

May 29, 2017

This brief reviews the main features of the recent globalization, attempts to explain its persistence over the centuries and why it is likely to persist in the indefinite the future, examines the causes and prospects of the new protectionism, and concludes by drawing policy implications.

Uri Dadush is Non-Resident Scholar at Bruegel and Senior Fellow at OCP Policy Center.
This brief was originally published by the OCP Policy Center.
Very useful comments and suggestions on a previous draft by Karim El Aynaoui and William Reinsch are gratefully acknowledged.

Despite the threat posed by right-wing nationalism, left wing populism, and protectionism, this is not the end of globalization. The most likely scenario is a continuation of globalization at a rate like that of the last ten

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Interdependence in difficult times

April 10, 2017

Parliamentary Testimony

This presentation was delivered in Malta at the Western Mediterranean Forum, commonly referred to as 5+5 Dialogue, was officially launched in Rome in 1990 as an informal sub-regional forum which main aim was to foster relations between European countries and the newly born Arab Maghreb Union. The 5+5 Dialogue comprises Algeria, France, Italy, Libya, Malta, Mauritania, Morocco, Portugal, Spain and Tunisia.

Uri Dadush
Date: April 10, 2017

Mediterranean regionTestimonies
Tags & Topics

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NAFTA in play: How President Trump could reshape trade in North America

March 1, 2017

How will the story of NAFTA unfold under the Trump presidency? Uri Dadush examines three possible scenarios and provides an overview of the policy implications for the various trading partners of the United States.

This blog post was originally published by the Inter American Dialogue (IAD).

The author would like to thank Peter Hakim and Beatriz Leycegui for helpful comments on a previous draft.

During his run for President of the United States, Mr. Trump called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), “the worst trade deal ever approved by this country”. His target is Mexico, which runs a $ 50 billion surplus of trade in goods and services with the United States. Trade with Canada, the third NAFTA party, is essentially balanced. However, NAFTA’s provisions cannot be changed without affecting Canada and without Canada’s consent, and the Foreign Ministers of Canada and Mexico have declared that they want the new NAFTA to be negotiated trilaterally, not bilaterally as Mr. Trump prefers.
Irrespective of procedure, negotiations between the United States and Mexico will cover issues that go beyond those of a typical trade agreement.

The President of Mexico, Mr. Pena Nieto, has issued a set of principles and objectives for the renegotiation of NAFTA, including that the negotiations must be comprehensive and enhance, not inhibit, the integration of North America.

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The border adjustment tax: a dangerous proposal

February 9, 2017

Reflecting the fact that the United States imports more than it exports, border adjustment tax is considered by its proponents as an essential part of the Trump tax reform package.

The border adjustment tax (BAT) is a proposal first put forward in June of last year by Republicans in the United States House of Representatives as part of a far-reaching tax reform. Republicans are now in a much stronger position to implement their tax reform agenda than they were then, and there is a considerable likelihood that the BAT will be enacted in some form as part of a new tax code.
The precise provisions of BAT are being debated, but they are widely understood to entail changing the way corporate income tax is calculated in the following way: for the purpose of calculating a company’s income tax, the cost of imported inputs will no longer be deducted from a company’s revenue; and the revenue accrued from exports will no longer be included in a company’s total revenue. This means, for example, that Wal-Mart, a large net importer, will pay a lot more tax than under the current system while Boeing, a large net exporter, would pay a lot less tax. American consumers shopping at Wal-Mart would face higher prices to offset the retailing giant’s increased tax bill and Wal Mart would have a strong incentive to buy Yogurt made in Wyoming rather than Yogurt made in Greece.

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