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David Smith’s EconomicsUK

EconomicsUK is the personal Original of David Smith, the Economics Editor of The Sunday Times, London. His easy to understand writing and clearly defined causes and consequences makes this an accessible blog for beginners.

The top 1% pay a lot of tax – will they stay or go?

The top 1% pay a lot of tax - will they stay or go? Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Today I want to lift my sights high. So high, in fact, that it takes me to the very top of the income distribution. These are the people who earn many times the average salary, are mainly not Premier League footballers (though they clearly do), and who are endlessly...

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This sterling slide has logic on its side

This sterling slide has logic on its side Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The new government is less than a fortnight old but already we have seen a flurry of announcements and, it seems, cash pouring out of the Treasury as if there is no tomorrow. So, on your behalf, I have been trying to make some sense of this, by reading Boris Johnson’s speeches and...

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Tricky times call for a lucky chancellor

Tricky times call for a lucky chancellor Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. There are three ways of viewing Boris Johnson’s first few days as prime minister, and in particular his “fire and hire” approach to his new cabinet. Apart from demonstrating that no job is as insecure as that of a cabinet minister and their special advisers, it was curious man and...

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Counting the cost of a Johnson government

Counting the cost of a Johnson government Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. When a new prime minister is about to take over, there is normally a sense of excitement, even optimism. In the case of Boris Johnson, however, assuming the polls are right and he is duly elected by Tory party members this week, there is also a powerful sense of trepidation. New...

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Friendless pound needs the kindness of strangers

Friendless pound needs the kindness of strangers Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Even before Sir Richard Branson offered his opinion on the pound, I was intending to write about sterling this week. This is a time of year when many people think about the exchange rate more than at other times and encounter the reality that businesses and the markets have...

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Brexit bluster comes home to roost as growth hits the buffers

Brexit bluster comes home to roost as growth hits the buffers Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Sometimes a figure comes out which really pulls you up short. Just such a figure was published a few days ago. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for Britain’s construction sector slumped last month. Already weak at 48.6 in May (levels below 50 signal a...

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Ten years of recovery, yet not a happy anniversary

Ten years of recovery, yet not a happy anniversary Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. This is an important moment. Ten years ago, 10 years tomorrow to be precise, Britain’s economy began to crawl, bleary-eyed, out of the deepest recession since the Second World War. The anniversary brings with it questions. How strong, or weak, has the recovery been? What...

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Our export prospects can burn bright – as long as we dodge a no-deal Brexit

Our export prospects can burn bright - as long as we dodge a no-deal Brexit Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. What will lift us out of the doldrums, this period of very weak growth and flatlining productivity Britain’s economy is stuck in? It will not, I judge, anything to do with Brexit. A survey of economists by Consensus Economics shows an average expectation of 1.35% growth this...

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Johnson’s dead cat tactics on tax and a no-deal Brexit

Johnson's dead cat tactics on tax and a no-deal Brexit Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Now that Boris Johnson has decisively won the first round of the contest among Tory MPs, and is runaway favourite to win among the membership, we have to take seriously the prospect of a Johnson premiership. In this strange tribal mating contest, in which those who...

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