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David Smith’s EconomicsUK

EconomicsUK is the personal Original of David Smith, the Economics Editor of The Sunday Times, London. His easy to understand writing and clearly defined causes and consequences makes this an accessible blog for beginners.

In a post-Covid world, the UK can’t be a tech also-ran

In a post-Covid world, the UK can't be a tech also-ran Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It has always struck me as hugely impressive that even as the Second World War was raging, serious thought was being given to the post-war economy. The Beveridge report, which provided the foundations of the modern welfare state, was published in 1942. The Bretton Woods...

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With every lockdown we lose some more of our economy

With every lockdown we lose some more of our economy Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Normally at this time of year not much happens and, during the period of limbo when most of the data refers to last year, it is sensible not to draw too many conclusions about what is going on. This year, however, not much is happening for a different reason. Lockdown 3 has...

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Five reasons to be cheerful – and two to worry about

Five reasons to be cheerful - and two to worry about Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Rarely, as we start a new year, has the gap between hope and reality been so wide. The reality, as far as the economy and business in concerned, is the prospect of weeks, maybe many months, of lockdown or near-lockdown restrictions. It makes it, by my reckoning, the worst...

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A dire year for the economy – and for forecasters

A dire year for the economy - and for forecasters Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The forecasting league table referred to in this piece is also available alongside my column on www.thetimes.co.uk This extraordinary year is ending with as much to be worried about as at any time during it. People like me often bandy around words like uncertainty but in normal...

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Inflation is back – but so far only for house prices

Inflation is back - but so far only for house prices Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. For those fearing that inflation will be one of the economic consequences of the pandemic, and the extraordinary measures introduced to combat it, the latest figures showed that it is not happening yet. Far from it. Consumer price inflation fell to just 0.3% last month,...

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Now investment prospects go from bad to worse

Now investment prospects go from bad to worse Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. When it comes to Brexit, definitions of what is last minute are pretty flexible. As I write this, we are still waiting to see whether it will be a no deal or the thin deal the two sides have been trying to negotiate. The pendulum has been swinging towards the former, though it...

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If the Scots want independence, they’ll have to pay a lot for it

If the Scots want independence, they'll have to pay a lot for it Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. These are heady days for supporters of Scottish independence. Fifteen polls in a row have shown net support for independence among those likely to vote, the latest from Ipsos-Mori for STV showing 56% support for Scotland breaking free from the rest of the...

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Sunak’s talk of emergency can only knock confidence

Sunak's talk of emergency can only knock confidence Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. You may have seen a report a few days ago which highlighted people’s lack of understanding of basic economic concepts. The report, based on a survey by the Economics Statistics Centre of Excellence and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, showed that...

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In a deep fiscal hole – and the government is still digging

In a deep fiscal hole - and the government is still digging Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. November can be a cruel month for chancellors. The last thing Rishi Sunak wanted was a second national lockdown and on Wednesday we will all find out what the additional measures he has been forced to put in place, including the extension of the furlough scheme...

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Three Old Hacks

Three Old Hacks Posted by David Smith at 02:30 PMCategory: Thoughts and responses With my very good friends Mihir Bose and Nigel Dudley, I have been recording the Three Old Hacks podcast. The third episode has just gone live, and the previous two are also available on the Chiswick Calendar website: https://chiswickcalendar.co.uk/episode-3-elections-we-have-known-and-loved/

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