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David Smith’s EconomicsUK

EconomicsUK is the personal Original of David Smith, the Economics Editor of The Sunday Times, London. His easy to understand writing and clearly defined causes and consequences makes this an accessible blog for beginners.

How to avoid the scars from a deep and nasty recession

How to avoid the scars from a deep and nasty recession Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Anybody who was shocked by the scenario drawn up by the Independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) a few days ago, the one that suggested that Britain’s economy could shrink by a massive 35% in the second quarter of the year, should perhaps not have been....

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Even as we dive into recession, some worry about the return of inflation

Even as we dive into recession, some worry about the return of inflation Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. At this time, indeed at all times, I am conscious of not wanting to add to the mood of concern, to put new bricks in the wall of worry. But it would be remiss of me not to address something that some people are worried about, which is that this modern...

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Despatches from an economy operatng at two-thirds of normal

Despatches from an economy operatng at two-thirds of normal Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It is a big and difficult question. How much is the economy being shut down by the lockdown? Is very little happening, as it can easily seem, or is quite a lot of activity happening alongside social distancing and a huge increase in the number of people working...

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Whatever it takes – but with an eye on the public finances

Whatever it takes - but with an eye on the public finances Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. For those of us who were not around at the time, one of the most impressive things that happened during the Second World War was that, even when the outcome was highly uncertain, planning for a post-war future took place. The Beveridge report, which formed the...

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The deeper the dive, the longer the way back

The deeper the dive, the longer the way back Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. If you can keep your head when all about are losing theirs, to paraphrase Rudyard Kipling, then you are the right person for a crisis. Britain has gone into this one with a new chancellor and a new Bank of England governor and it is only fair to say that both deserve...

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The chancellor places his bets on a £1 trillion gamble

The chancellor places his bets on a £1 trillion gamble Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It is always a challenge writing about a budget a few days after the event, particularly when the ensuing period has included a further big slump in the stock market – making this bear market very grizzly - the government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak moving...

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Get businesses to invest or you can forget about levelling up

Get businesses to invest or you can forget about levelling up Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It is beginning to look a lot like the curse of the budget. This time last year the last chancellor but one, Philip Hammond, unveiled his spring statement for the economy, having had a budget the previous October. In it, he looked forward both to an autumn...

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A nasty shock – but only if we panic about the pandemic

A nasty shock - but only if we panic about the pandemic Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Once it would have been easy. People like me would have looked at the deadly effect of the coronavirus Covid-19 outbreak on the stock market, concluded that it must be telling us something important and worrying, and wheeled out our recession predictions. Times have...

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Sunak gets ready to do a reverse Osborne

Sunak gets ready to do a reverse Osborne Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Nothing is predictable these days, which may be the government’s guiding principle, but for this week I am making two assumptions. The first is that, unlike his predecessor, Rishi Sunak will be around for long enough as chancellor to deliver a budget. The second is that the budget...

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When a chancellor quits, we should all be unsettled

When a chancellor quits, we should all be unsettled Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. In the many years I have been doing this job, two chancellors, John Major and Gordon Brown, have left their post to move onto greater things; becoming prime minister Two have lost therole of chancellor as a result of election defeats for the governing party; Kenneth...

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