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David Smith’s EconomicsUK

EconomicsUK is the personal Original of David Smith, the Economics Editor of The Sunday Times, London. His easy to understand writing and clearly defined causes and consequences makes this an accessible blog for beginners.

Amid chaos, this recovery is starting to look very messy

Amid chaos, this recovery is starting to look very messy Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Not to be reproduced without permission. The story so far. Energy suppliers are dropping like flies and millions of households and businesses face higher bills. The government has just paid an American-owned fertiliser manufacturing firm tens of millions of pounds to keep...

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There’s a real risk that the inflation cat is out of the bag

There's a real risk that the inflation cat is out of the bag Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Not to be reproduced without permission. As inflation shocks go, the one unveiled a few days ago was quite a big one. The jump in consumer price inflation from 2 to 3.2 per cent in August was, according to official statisticians, the largest ever recorded increase in...

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After this dog’s dinner. can we sustain record taxes?

After this dog's dinner. can we sustain record taxes? Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Not to be reproduced without permission. We have had some momentous announcements in the past week, dwarfing most budgets, though without the red box, the choreographed photo opportunities and the usual theatre. There are a couple of big questions I want to try to answer...

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Sunak turned on the spending taps – can he turn them off again?

Sunak turned on the spending taps - can he turn them off again? Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Not to be reproduced without permission. One of the encouraging signs that things are returning to some kind of normal is the extent of the jousting ahead of the Treasury’s comprehensive spending review, which is expected at the end of October. Rishi Sunak has...

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A Brexit headwind the UK recovery could do without

A Brexit headwind the UK recovery could do without Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Not to be reproduced without permission. The script for the economy’s post-pandemic recovery did not include a sequence in which a series of economic indicators started pointing downwards, and yet that is what we have been seeing. Why is it happening, and how serious is the...

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As earnings soar, the only way for wage growth is down

As earnings soar, the only way for wage growth is down Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Not to be reproduced without permission. What I am about to say today should reassure many people but disappoint others, which is perhaps inevitable when the theme is pay. It should reassure the many who saw the latest official figures showing an increase in average earnings of 8.8 per cent over the...

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A V-shaped recovery – but not yet a Heineken one

A V-shaped recovery - but not yet a Heineken one Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Not to be reproduced without permission. It is not every Sunday that I get to comment on figures which show that the economy grew by 4.8 per cent in a single quarter and was more than 22 per cent bigger than a year earlier. In fact, I can confidently predict that I will never do...

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Northern productivity powers up – but can it last?

Northern productivity powers up - but can it last? Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Not to be reproduced without permission. I am going to start today with a prediction. It is that when we get the next official estimate of productivity growth, it will be a strong one. Let me explain. The main measure of productivity is output, or gross domestic product (GDP),...

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Low rates seem here to stay – thanks to older savers

Low rates seem here to stay - thanks to older savers Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Not to be reproduced without permission. The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) will on Thursday announce its latest decision on interest rates and it is fair to say that it would be regarded as an economic and financial earthquake if it was to vote for an...

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Plenty of bumps in the road on the long walk to freedom

Plenty of bumps in the road on the long walk to freedom Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thetimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Not to be reproduced without permission. There was a time when tomorrow was loudly and repeatedly dubbed Freedom Day by ministers, particularly the prime minister, with repeated assurances that the removal of remaining restrictions would be irreversible. Things are a little different now and the idea...

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