Friday , October 18 2019
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Megan Greene

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Greece’s Economy: Resurgent, but Still Fragile

Describing the Greek economy these days as a phoenix ascendant from the ashes of crisis is, given the country involved, an apt metaphor. Yet it may be too early to mythologise the Greek economy. Fast money has done well investing in Greece, but the stickier long-term investors that Greece so desperately needs remain sceptical. Until the fundamentals improve, this phoenix still has one wing tied down. Click here for my latest column in the Financial Times. Share this

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Agents of Change: the Economics and Politics of Reforms

I had the great pleasure to teach a course on structural reforms and sovereign debt crisis at the European University Institute near Florence, Italy on Sep 16-17. My partners in crime were George Papaconstantinou (the Greek finance minister when Greece was pushed into its first bailout), Bob Traa (former IMF senior representative in Greece) and Nicola Giammarioli (Secretary General of the ESM). The course covered the economics behind structural reforms and sovereign...

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Consumers cannot carry the US economy for ever

They don’t call us dismal scientists for nothing. Nearly 75 per cent of economists surveyed in July by the National Association for Business Economics see a US recession by the end of 2021. But ask for data supporting that forecast and you get no real consensus. There are plenty of theories about trade wars. US growth has slowed. But the usual bubbles and imbalances that trigger recession aren’t yet evident. With consumption accounting for nearly 70 per cent of growth, a...

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What’s driving stock market volatility?

Stock market volatility—big swings in the prices of stocks—had actually been relatively low in the period of recovery from the financial crisis through 2017. However, that trend has been changing of late, with several incidences of volatility marked by ‘short, sharp hurricanes,’ rather than the ‘longer storms’ of the past. I discuss some of the changes in technology and financial regulation that contribute to recent volatility alongside Michael Klein, Executive Editor,...

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This is a currency war the US can’t possibly win

President Donald Trump’s tweeted demands for a weaker dollar, and his subsequent designation of China as a “currency manipulator”, have sparked fears that his trade battles are morphing into a currency war. The last time we had a global competitive devaluation was in the 1930s, as the world descended into the Depression. But today, currency values are set in huge global markets rather than against gold. That leaves the US alone on the battlefield, armed with only the...

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State of the Eurozone (and the US)

“I think in the US if we look back and think ‘what a wasted recovery,’ the Europeans are going to do it doubly. And that’s partly because there’s just a whole bunch of institutional architecture that still needs to happen in the Eurozone in order for the Euro to really be a sustainable project.” Here’s a clear-headed, non-sensationalist view of the state of the eurozone (and the US) in an Expert View I did with Real Vision (Click here for the full video, but that one...

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