Wednesday , November 25 2020
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The author Lars Christensen
Lars Christensen
International economist, Money Doctor, Founder of Markets & Money Advisory, Research Associate Stellenbosch University [email protected] +45 52 50 25 06

The Market Monetarist

The Czechs and the Swedes – the tale of two Covid-strategies

This is the number of new daily deaths from/with Covid-19 in Sweden and the Czech Republic. Source: Here. The two countries are similar in many ways – the population is just over 10 million in both countries; the average age is around 41 and the number of elderly people as share of the population is also pretty much the same (3-4% of the population is over 80 years old). Life expectancy in Sweden, however, is 82 years while it is 79 years in the Czech Republic. The immigrant...

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ONE factor explains most of the differences in Covid19 deaths across US states

Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic I have closely been monitoring the data for the number of deaths and infected across different countries and I have spend considerable time trying to estimate statistical models to explain variations in deaths and infects across different countries. It quickly became clear to me that relative few factors could explain this variation and back in April I wrote a blog post in which I claimed that ONE factor could explain most of the variation...

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The Fed just de facto increased its inflation target to 2.5%

The long awaited update of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Strategy has just been announced. Here are the key points: On maximum employment, the FOMC emphasized that maximum employment is a broad-based and inclusive goal and reports that its policy decision will be informed by its “assessments of the shortfalls of employment from its maximum level.” The original document referred to “deviations from its maximum level.” On price stability, the FOMC adjusted its strategy for achieving...

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Presentation: Getting practical about data and analytics in basketball

If you are hear about monetary policy or international economics this post is not for you. Instead this is about ‘sports analytics’ or rather about ‘basketball analytics’. This morning I was invited to give a presentation on the use of data and analytics at the Filipino basketball network HOOP Coaches International. You can watch my presentation here: Share this:Like this:Like Loading...

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The shortest recession ever – unemployment will be below 6% in November

After US unemployment rose to nearly 15% (in April) I wrote a blog post forecasting unemployment would be back below 6% in November. That got me a lot of attention and a lot of suggestions for bets on the numbers (I have accepted a lot of these wagers). Today, we got the US labor market report for May. It is a massive confirmation on my bullish call on the US labor market. US (non-farm) employment rose by 3 million in May and unemployment dropped to 13.3% in May from 14.7% in...

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Why have epidemiological forecasts been so wrong and what to do about it

Why have epidemiological forecasts been so wrong and what to do about it If we look at the forecasts, we got from epidemiologists initially in the Covid-19 pandemic it has turned out that they have massively wrong. While tragic the number of people who has died in this pandemic has been much lower than forecasted. The reason given by epidemiologists then is that that is because of interventions – lockdowns. But then you made the wrong kind of forecast – you forgot to forecast what would...

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Presentation on the US economy and markets (in Danish)

Warning – this is in Danish. Her til eftermiddag har jeg haft fornøjelsen for første gang at optræde på SpeakerBee. Temaet var markederne og økonomien – primært i USA. Jeg taler blandt andet om udsigterne for væksten og arbejdsmarkedet i USA – jeg er meget optimistisk – og for det amerikanske aktiemarkeder, hvor jeg er knap så optimistisk. Hør og se, hvordan det hænger sammen her. Hvis du vil have mig ud til en præsentation eller arrangere et webinar eller lignene, så kontakt mit speaker...

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When Americans vote in November unemployment will be below 6%

Friday’s US labour market report rightly got a lot of media attention globally. The spike in US unemployment to 15% surely is historical and tells us quite a bit about just how big a shock has hit the US and the global economy. However, where most commentators are wrong is assuming that this has to be seen as a normal recession. I on the other hand would argue that this has little to do with a normal recession. In fact I am increasingly thinking that the use of the term ‘recession’ is a...

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The Corona Crisis – a Scandinavian perspective.

Today Swedish journalist Nathalie Besèr and I have had a talk about the economic and political perspectives on the corona crisis from a Scandinavian perspective. We among other things talk about the different policies in the Scandinavian countries and look at the economic consequences of the crisis. Share this:Like this:Like Loading...

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