Wednesday , January 19 2022

Spot On!

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Share the post "Spot On!" On Thursday (look it up!) I predicted that Pécresse would win the LR runoff 60-40. It was just announced that she got 60.95% of the final vote. You heard it here first, folks! The field for 2022 is now set. I suspect that the next round of polling will show a significant post-convention bounce for Pécresse and a slight sag in support for Zemmour, now that he has ended his fan dance and declared himself a candidate in a widely mocked YouTube video. Pécresse will pick up support from former Bertrand and Barnier supporters, while Zemmour and Le Pen are likely to gain smaller amounts from disappointed Ciotti backers. If the Pécresse bounce is enough to put her ahead of Zemmour or Le Pen, expect a significant amount of chatter touting her as the

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On Thursday (look it up!) I predicted that Pécresse would win the LR runoff 60-40. It was just announced that she got 60.95% of the final vote. You heard it here first, folks!

The field for 2022 is now set. I suspect that the next round of polling will show a significant post-convention bounce for Pécresse and a slight sag in support for Zemmour, now that he has ended his fan dance and declared himself a candidate in a widely mocked YouTube video. Pécresse will pick up support from former Bertrand and Barnier supporters, while Zemmour and Le Pen are likely to gain smaller amounts from disappointed Ciotti backers. If the Pécresse bounce is enough to put her ahead of Zemmour or Le Pen, expect a significant amount of chatter touting her as the new chief rival to Macron. This could change the dynamics of the race somewhat.

Remember 2016-17, however. Lots can happen between now and April. Pécresse will now come under intense scrutiny, and we shall see what emerges.

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Art Goldhammer
Writer, translator, scholar, blogger on French Politics, affiliate of Harvard's Center for European Studies, writes for The American Prospect, The Nation, etc.

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