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ifo Institute Expects Quarterly Growth of around 0.8 Percent for German Economy

Summary:
The ifo Institute expects Germany to see economic growth around 0.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017. “This is partly due to the ifo Business Climate Index’s steady climb in recent months, combined with very strong developments in other key economic indicators like new orders and retailing turnover,” notes Timo Wollmershaeuser, Head of Economic Forecasting at the ifo Institute. “Many indicators point to a really strong second quarter. The German economy is getting a lot of orders from the euro area at the moment. The number of jobs in Germany is growing steadily, which is boosting consumption. Oil prices and the euro exchange rate are still relatively low,” explains Wollmershaeuser. The German Federal Statistics Office is

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The ifo Institute expects Germany to see economic growth around 0.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017. “This is partly due to the ifo Business Climate Index’s steady climb in recent months, combined with very strong developments in other key economic indicators like new orders and retailing turnover,” notes Timo Wollmershaeuser, Head of Economic Forecasting at the ifo Institute.

“Many indicators point to a really strong second quarter. The German economy is getting a lot of orders from the euro area at the moment. The number of jobs in Germany is growing steadily, which is boosting consumption. Oil prices and the euro exchange rate are still relatively low,” explains Wollmershaeuser. The German Federal Statistics Office is publishing its flash estimate for quarterly growth next week.

“There have been no signs of our ifo survey data decoupling from hard economic indices to date. It is important to consider the change in the ifo Business Climate Index, and not merely its level when forecasting economic developments in Germany,” adds Wollmershaeuser.

Publication (in German)

Klaus Wohlrabe and Timo Wollmershaeuser, "How to Correctly Interpret the ifo Business Climate Index as an Economic Early Indicator", ifo Schnelldienst 15/2017, to be published

    Clemens Fuest
    Clemens Fuest took over from Hans Werner Sinn as chairman of the IFO Institute in April 2016. He is professor at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Munich.

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