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ifo World Economic Climate Deteriorates Further

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Results of the ifo World Economic Survey (WES) for the 3rd Quarter 2018 Press Release (PDF, 196 KB) The ifo World Economic Climate deteriorated further in the third quarter. The indicator dropped from 16.5 points to 2.9 points in this quarter, returning to more or less the same level as in the first quarter of 2017. Although experts’ assessments of the current economic situation deteriorated significantly, they nevertheless remain at a high level. Their economic expectations, by contrast, were scaled back considerably, falling to their lowest level since the end of 2011. The world economy has slowed to a crawl. The economic climate deteriorated in nearly all regions. Both assessments of the current

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Results of the ifo World Economic Survey (WES) for the 3rd Quarter 2018

The ifo World Economic Climate deteriorated further in the third quarter. The indicator dropped from 16.5 points to 2.9 points in this quarter, returning to more or less the same level as in the first quarter of 2017. Although experts’ assessments of the current economic situation deteriorated significantly, they nevertheless remain at a high level. Their economic expectations, by contrast, were scaled back considerably, falling to their lowest level since the end of 2011. The world economy has slowed to a crawl.

The economic climate deteriorated in nearly all regions. Both assessments of the current economic situation and expectations fell significantly in the European Union, Asian emerging and developing economies (including China), and in Latin America. In the USA economic expectations also cooled down. Assessments of the current economic situation, by contrast, improved. In the CIS countries, the Middle East and North Africa both economic expectations and assessments of the current economic situation improved.

Developments in world trade were dominated by the current conflict over tariffs, with the majority of WES experts predicting lower exports in the months ahead, particularly for the USA and China. Forecast global investment activity levels fell significantly. The experts surveyed also expect private consumption to stagnate.

Clemens Fuest
Clemens Fuest took over from Hans Werner Sinn as chairman of the IFO Institute in April 2016. He is professor at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Munich.

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