Monday , March 18 2019
Home / Political Thoughts - the magazine / “Crashing out” of the EU – how big a crash?

“Crashing out” of the EU – how big a crash?

Summary:
The Bank of England published this graph showing the effect of leaving the EU with no deal in its report: EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability: The graph is designed to look as scary as possible.  However, when we read the notes on page 53 we find this little gem:"As economic conditions deteriorate, net migration falls from a net inflow of 250,000 per year to a net outflow of 100,000 people per year."This is a massive change in population growth. Almost all UK population growth is due to migration and the children of migrants.  The reduction in migration will reduce the UK population growth by 0.56% per year directly, without allowing for children born to migrants.  This is excellent news because it means that the Bank's figures imply a GDP per head that is

Topics:
John considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

J. writes The Fight for Independence continues. What next?

J. writes This is Personal

J. writes When Representatives go Rogue.

J. writes The Mock Morality

The Bank of England published this graph showing the effect of leaving the EU with no deal in its report: EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability:

The graph is designed to look as scary as possible.  However, when we read the notes on page 53 we find this little gem:

"As economic conditions deteriorate, net migration falls from a net inflow of 250,000 per year to a net outflow of 100,000 people per year."

This is a massive change in population growth. Almost all UK population growth is due to migration and the children of migrants.  The reduction in migration will reduce the UK population growth by 0.56% per year directly, without allowing for children born to migrants.  This is excellent news because it means that the Bank's figures imply a GDP per head that is rising rapidly after 2020:

So according to the Bank of England figures we will all get a lot richer in the late 2020s if a no deal, no transition Brexit happens. In fact if we factor in the missing children of migrants the benefits will be even higher.

Surely it is worth suffering half the set back that we experienced in the banking crisis to enter a period of subsequent prosperity?  These are the Bank's figures so anyone who is tempted to Remain in the EU should respect them.

I prefer crashing out because I love the British countryside:


I would also like affordable housing for my kids.

A WTO Brexit with a managed transition is probably better in the short term. It has few real consequences economically - see Plan B for Brexit and Bank of England gives green light for WTO Brexit

About J.
John

Biography data hidden due GDPR Data Protection. Author consent pending.
(Economic Blogs is not responsible for linked external content)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *