Thursday , August 6 2020

After Coronavirus

Summary:
In six months time, after huge numbers of deaths in the Middle East and elsewhere due to Covid-19 what will have changed?The retail industry will experience the biggest change.  Many small shops cannot survive months of shutdown.  Expect town centres to contract yet further as everyone learns how to order online.As people become more dependent on social media and home working they are likely to become yet more withdrawn from the world.The government will bail out large companies and banks.  In the absence of intervention the Multinationals and International Banks will become yet more powerful.All these trends were in the pipeline but Covid-19 is a Black Swan event at a critical moment that will precipitate the changes.No-one will be able to assess whether Brexit was good or bad for the UK

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In six months time, after huge numbers of deaths in the Middle East and elsewhere due to Covid-19 what will have changed?

The retail industry will experience the biggest change.  Many small shops cannot survive months of shutdown.  Expect town centres to contract yet further as everyone learns how to order online.

As people become more dependent on social media and home working they are likely to become yet more withdrawn from the world.

The government will bail out large companies and banks.  In the absence of intervention the Multinationals and International Banks will become yet more powerful.

All these trends were in the pipeline but Covid-19 is a Black Swan event at a critical moment that will precipitate the changes.

No-one will be able to assess whether Brexit was good or bad for the UK economy. It might become clear to everyone that all those arguments about 3% falls in GDP over 30 years etc. were facetious.  It is global events that really affect us.

Of course, anyone could predict these changes but it is always the unexpected that catches us out.  Is there anything lurking out there that will catch us unprepared?  Here are some guesses:

The Chinese economy may be the first to recover, allowing them to become the global economic superpower.  This would be exceptionally bad news because China is a National Socialist (NAZI) state.

It is possible that Universal Basic Income (UBI) will be introduced in some countries having been trialled during Covid-19.

The EU may either collapse under the pressure of saving Italy etc. or become an obvious Nation State.

Governments may realise that keeping people at home is a green option despite the possibility that global warming may transiently jump as sulphur dioxide pollution falls.

25/03/2020

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