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US Election too close to call

Summary:
The US Electoral system takes account of the idea that the USA is a Federation of States which means that the President is finally selected by an Electoral College that has a population-weighted number of representatives from each State.  Almost all States use a "winner takes all" system of appointing representatives to the Electoral College, this means that 100% of Californians voting for Biden will have no more effect than 60% of Californians voting for Biden.There are 538 members of the Electoral College so 270 or more votes ensures victory for a Presidential Candidate. Biden currently (10pm 4/11) has 248 votes and Trump had 214.Most US States are polarised as Republican or Democrat which means that US Elections are determined by the "swing" states.  In 2020 the swing states are:

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The US Electoral system takes account of the idea that the USA is a Federation of States which means that the President is finally selected by an Electoral College that has a population-weighted number of representatives from each State.  Almost all States use a "winner takes all" system of appointing representatives to the Electoral College, this means that 100% of Californians voting for Biden will have no more effect than 60% of Californians voting for Biden.

There are 538 members of the Electoral College so 270 or more votes ensures victory for a Presidential Candidate. Biden currently (10pm 4/11) has 248 votes and Trump had 214.

Most US States are polarised as Republican or Democrat which means that US Elections are determined by the "swing" states.  In 2020 the swing states are: Arizona (11) North Carolina (15) Florida (29) Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Wisconsin (10) Georgia (16).  The number of electoral college votes are given in brackets.

Voting Results: Trump has won Florida.  Biden has almost certainly won Arizona.

Biden is leading in Wisconsin and won Michigan although there could still be an increasingly small chance of an upset in Wisconsin.

It all hinges on Pennsylvania, N. Carolina and Georgia. A win in all of these plus Nevada would mean Trump wins by a small margin.  The remaining votes in Georgia and N. Carolina will need to go over 65% to Biden for Trump  to lose. This is not impossible because the late counts seem to be mainly Biden votes, for some reason.

Results at 5.45pm from Pensylvania make it almost certain Trump will win. Almost 70% of the remaining votes would need to be cast for Biden if Biden is to win. The current vote is 45.2% Biden and 53.5% Trump with 80% of votes counted.

Trump will most likely win at least one of the outstanding big three swing states unless the outstanding votes are almost all Biden supporters. The late votes are almost entirely votes by mail, Georgia has a guillotine of 7pm November 3rd on mail and other late ballots so is already counting all possible mail votes and these might be expected to be in the same proportion Biden/Trump as previous votes.  It would be surprising if Trump loses Georgia.

My guess now is that Trump will lose by 6 or more electoral college votes.

Biden has had a strong lead nationwide of 7-10% in the US opinion polls for months. This is double the lead of Clinton in the 2016 US Election.  Yet the US election is on a knife edge because of the Federal structure in the USA.  We could have a situation in which Biden wins the overall popular vote in the USA by 5%+ and Trump is appointed President with a 2 vote majority in the Electoral College.  


4/11/2020

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