Friday , August 23 2019
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Tag Archives: Chart Update

Tumbling Interest Rates – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

  An Era of Low Time Preference Last week the price of gold moved up another $16, and the price of silver was up $0.14. 10-year treasury note yield since 1999 – it is almost back at the multi-decade low of 2016. The only other time in history when US treasury yields were this low was in 1944-1945, when the Fed was actively suppressing yields in order to provide cheap financing for the war effort. One year later (from mid 1946 to mid...

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Writing on the Wall

  Not Adding Up One of the more disagreeable discrepancies of American life in the 21st century is the world according to Washington’s economic bureaus and the world as it actually is.  In short, things don’t add up.  What’s more, the propaganda is so far off the mark, it is downright insulting. Coming down from the mountain with the latest data tablet… [PT] The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports an unemployment rate of just 3.7...

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Rising Stock Market Volatility – Another Warning Sign

  Bad Hair Days Are Back We recently discussed the many divergences between major US indexes, which led us to expect that a downturn in the stock market was close (see The Calm Before the Storm for details). Here is an update of the comparison chart we showed at the time: The divergences between various indexes seem to be resolving as expected. The next chart shows analogous divergences between the S&P 500 Index and two major...

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Retail Holders Sell Their Gold – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

  A Myriad of Reasons to Buy Gold – But Small Holders are Selling Big moves occurred in the prices of the metals last week, with that of gold up $57 and silver $0.77. We have now reached a price of gold (if not silver) not seen since 2013, when it was on the way down. What is causing this sudden spike in price and renewed interest in gold? A well-known depiction of investor emotions over a complete market cycle. Interestingly, it...

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Sovereign Bonds – Stretched to the Limit

  Anti-Vigilantes We dimly remember when Japanese government debt traded at a negative yield to maturity for the very first time. This happened at some point in the late 1990s or early 2000ds in secondary market trading (it was probably a shorter maturity than the 10-year JGB) and was considered quite a curiosity. If memory serves, it happened on just one brief occasion and it was widely held at the time that the absurd situation of a...

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Bond Yields in the Netherworld – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

  A Record Amount of Bonds with Negative Yields to Maturity Last week the price of gold went up $22, while the price of silver dropped ¢17. The big news last week was that the yield on all German government bond maturities is now negative. They are also all negative in Switzerland. And in Denmark, all maturities out to 20 years are negative. Interest rates are dropping rapidly in the US as well. More than $14 trillion in bonds now...

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The Motte and Baley Fallacy – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

    Spoofers vs. the Underlying Trend The price of gold fell seven bucks, but the price of silver was up $0.16. In other words, the gold-silver ratio did a little more reverting to that long-forgotten mean. Launceston Castle in Cornwall, an example of a motte and baley fortification. The castle was built in 1067-1071 AD, either by the Count of Mortain (the half-brother of William the Conqueror) or Brian of Brittany. [PT] Photo credit:...

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Silver Gets Frisky – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

  Speculators Finally Wade Into Silver Well, wasn’t this an interesting week! The price of gold was up a pedestrian $10, mere noise in the long-term signal. But in silver, we see plus one dollar. It was practically inevitable with the gold-silver ratio at an all-time high, after a big run up in the gold price with no corresponding run in silver. 1000 oz. good delivery silver bars – one COMEX futures contract refers to five of these...

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The Calm Before the Storm

  Intra-Market Divergences Galore  US big cap stocks have rallied to new highs in recent months, but just as in the rally from the low of the February 2018 mini-panic to the September/October 2018 peak, sizable divergences between different indexes have emerged in the process. New highs in the big cap indexes (DJIA, SPX, NDX) are once again not confirmed by small caps (RUT), the broad market (NYA) and a number of sub-sectors (such as...

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Resistance Created by Long-Suffering “Hodlers” – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

    Gold vs Other Assets The prices of the metals went up +$15 and +$0.23. We will be brief this week, as Keith just got off a 17-hour flight from Perth to London. Stocks continue their march upwards. And hence the gold price seems stalled—or is it? It may seem like gold goes up, when stocks go down and vice versa. That’s been the recent pattern. Why should people own money without return, when stocks are where the action is? Gold-SPX...

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