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Tag Archives: China

China’s Coronavirus will not lead to recession but to stimulus and even more debt

The coronavirus outbreak will not lead to recession but the costs of ensuring growth targets will be highThe outbreak of coronavirus has struck yet another blow to the Chinese economy after the improvement in business confidence since the Phase One trade deal was announced in mid-December. How severe the coronavirus may be for the Chinese economy will not only depend on the extent and depth of the virus outbreak but also on the government response. The People’s Bank of China immediate and...

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From globalization to deglobalization: Zooming into trade

External PublicationThis article shows some evidence of the decrease in merchandise, capital and, to a lesser extent people to people flows. By: Alicia García-Herrero Date: February 3, 2020 Topic: Global Economics & Governance After decades of increasing globalization both in trade, capital flows but even people to people movements, it seems the trend has turned towards deglobalization. This article shows some evidence of the decrease in merchandise, capital and, to a lesser...

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The US-China trade agreement will not put an end to geopolitical risks

The agreement between the US and China should not be read so positively in Europe, especially in GermanyThe reading of the global financial markets on the agreement reached between the United States and China has been positive, probably excessively, given the relatively limited size of the agreement reached. The best thing about the agreement is that it allows a truce – at least partial – in the strategic competition between China and the United States. This truce comes at a key moment for...

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Stability remains key to China

The most concerning aspect for the Chinese economy will still be to hold up domestic demand. The rapidly rising household debt will put further breaks of the households' ability to purchase durable goods2019 was a challenging year for China, featuring rapid growth deceleration. Consumption growth, long perceived as the key for China’s growth resilience, moved downwards significantly in 2019. What’s more, domestic investment remained sluggish, reflecting the shattered confidence among...

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Hong Kong: A Path to De-escalation?

Share the post "Hong Kong: A Path to De-escalation?" Hong Kong’s protest movement has now been developing for more than half a year. In its early stages, the movement brought success for the protesters, in the form of massive mobilizations (June 9 and 16), the suspension (June 15) and later withdrawal (September 4) of the Extradition Bill that had originally sparked the controversy. At the same time, the summer months also saw unprecedented police violence against...

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Watch out for China’s currency in case of no-deal scenario

The U.S. and China’s negotiations on a phase-one deal seem to have stalled again. The market was already aware of the limited nature of the likely deal, but was still hoping for it. Against this backdrop, the investors have reacted negatively to the increased likelihood of not reaching a deal on December 15. If this is the case, the U.S. will apply additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The obvious question to address, thus, is, what can happen to China under such a scenario?We first need to...

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The European Union-Russia-China energy triangle

Concern is growing in the European Union that a rapprochement between Russia and China could have negative implications for the EU.This Policy Contribution is a version of a paper prepared for the seminar ‘Trade relations between the EU, China and Russia’, co-organised by the Delegation of the European Union to Russia and Bruegel with the support of the EU Russia Expert Network on Foreign Policy (EUREN). The seminar was funded by the European Union. The content of this paper is the sole...

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Manufacturing employment, international trade, and China

The decline in manufacturing employment is often seen as a major reason for rising inequality, social tensions, and the slump of entire communities. With the rise of national populists and protectionists in recent years, the issue has become even more prominent.The objective of this paper is to better understand the evolution of manufacturing employment across the world. Manufacturing value added has grown rapidly since 2000, at least matching world GDP growth, even after the global financial...

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How does China fare on the Russian market? Implications for the European Union

China’s economic ties with Russia are deepening. Meanwhile, Europe remains Russia’s largest trading partner, lender and investor. An analysis of China’s ties with Russia, indicate that China seems to have become more of a competitor to the European Union on Russia’s market. Competition over investment and lending is more limited, but the situation could change rapidly with China and Russia giving clear signs of a stronger than ever strategic partnership.This paper was prepared for the seminar...

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Why sentiment in Greater Bay Area is deteriorating, especially in Hong Kong

Lack of concrete plans affects sentiment after brief surge on announcement of Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay AreaThe slowing Chinese economy and US-China trade war are part of the reason Hong Kong’s economy is decelerating rapidly, and the recent social unrest has only aggravated the situation. Among all the uncertainties, an important announcement for Hong Kong and Guangdong province was made in February 2019, namely the Outline Development Plan for...

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