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Tag Archives: Economy

Redistribution Under Macron–Updated Figures from the IPP

Share the post "Redistribution Under Macron–Updated Figures from the IPP" The IPP has released a new report on the cumulative effect of Macron’s budgets since taking office (h/t Ashoka Mody). Here is the executive summary: Cette note étudie les réformes des impôts et transferts portant sur les ménages qui ont été introduites par le budget 2019, en incluant les mesures les plus récentes annoncées à la suite du mouvement des « gilets jaunes ». Les résultats indiquent un...

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Competition: La Bataille du Rail

Share the post "Competition: La Bataille du Rail" To hear the Gilets Jaunes tell it, you’d think the government has nothing on its mind but how to squeeze the last centime out of the harried taxpayer. But every once in a while one is reminded that the government in fact has bigger–or at least other–fish to fry. There is China, for example. To combat the Chinese rail juggernaut CRRC, Alstom and Siemens want to hook up to keep Europe in the high-speed rail game. But the...

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The Contradictions of Macronism

Share the post "The Contradictions of Macronism" President of the rich? The label has now stuck fast to the once-Teflon Macron, but does it reflect reality? Le Monde today published figures from the Institut de Politiques Publiques showing the cumulative effect of the bewildering array of tax reforms enacted under Macron on the various levels of the income distribution. And it turns out that while the reforms do boost the disposable income of the top 1% by nearly 6%,...

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Le Statut des Cheminots

Share the post "Le Statut des Cheminots" There has been much discussion, and much cant, in recent weeks about le statut des cheminots. Macron wants to change it. For this he has been accused by some in the unions, the media, and politics of seeking “to destroy a public service.” The reduced costs to the SNCF do not justify the move, some say, and therefore the real goal must be political: to strike at the very symbol of worker protections that define the French social...

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En même temps, mais pas tout de suite

Emmanuel Macron's habitual use of en même temps during the campaign (essentially in order to convey "balance": je suis de gauche mais en même temps de droite) has become the butt of ridicule, even as his economic policy has tilted decisively to the right, deferring whatever was supposed to happen en même temps either to later or to the European empyrean, where all good things will come, but mañana.His champions say, But he is doing precisely what he promised to do, which is more or less true...

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A Faint Glimmer of Hope

Is it possible that my initial reaction was too pessimistic? Might the German election results actually facilitate rather than hinder EU reform? Not if you believe that Christian Lindner of the FDP will be a strong voice in the "Jamaica coalition": The party’s leader, Christian Lindner, was blunt on Sunday night, repeating his opposition to Mr. Macron’s ideas. Without ruling out all reform, he said that a eurozone budget that could be used to send money to France and Italy “would be...

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Show Us the Money

Why do you rob banks? Willie Sutton was asked. "Because that's where the money is," he answered quite logically. France and Germany are now going after American tech behemoths for the same reason: That's where the money is. It's not quite Piketty's global tax on capital, but it may "disrupt" the Silicon Valley disrupters all the same.Bruno Le Maire, the French fin min, said last week that “Internet giants are welcome in Europe but it’s not right they pay so little in taxes,” adding that new...

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Has Macron Sliced the Gordian Knot?

Emmanuel Macron badly needs a win. I think he may have it. His labor code reform is out, and there has been no earthquake. It seems unlikely there will be. I'm working on a longish magazine article, but here is my initial reaction: Today, the details of the reform proposal were finally released. A key provision was a reduction of the maximum indemnity available to employees deemed by a review panel to have been fired without cause. In return, labor received a sweetener: an increase of 25...

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Robust Growth Ahead for France

UBS is forecasting the fastest growth rate of the French economy since the crisis. If the forecast is correct, Macron will reap the benefits of the Hollande-era reforms (plus cyclical recovery stemming from inventory replenishment and pent-up consmer demand) without lifting a finger. French unemployment is also at a 12-yr low. Indeed, UBS worries that if he overexerts himself by lifting too many fingers (read: labor code reform), he could hinder the recovery just as it gets rolling. This is...

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Macron Seeks More Clout in Brussels

According to the Financial Times, Emmanuel Macron is seeking to have Bruno Le Maire replace Jeroen Dijsselbloem as head of the Eurogroup, the committee of finance ministers who set Eurozone policy. Failing that, he'd like to see Odile Renaud-Basso become the head of the so-called Working Group within the Eurogroup. Meanwhile, he's also pushing for the creation of the post of Eurozone finance minister--a move to which the Germans may accede. Agreement on any of these proposals would signify...

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