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Tag Archives: Global Economics & Governance

China’s Coronavirus will not lead to recession but to stimulus and even more debt

The coronavirus outbreak will not lead to recession but the costs of ensuring growth targets will be highThe outbreak of coronavirus has struck yet another blow to the Chinese economy after the improvement in business confidence since the Phase One trade deal was announced in mid-December. How severe the coronavirus may be for the Chinese economy will not only depend on the extent and depth of the virus outbreak but also on the government response. The People’s Bank of China immediate and...

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India navigates a new global order

India’s economic diplomacy must seek to strengthen a reformed and inclusive multilateralism.With Indian economic growth slowing, commentary is focused on Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s 2020–21 Union Budget.Less public attention is being paid to India’s external challenges.  The world economy matters to India today and India has itself become a global player. The rules-based multilateral economic order which supported global integration for a generation is under widespread challenge. ...

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From globalization to deglobalization: Zooming into trade

External PublicationThis article shows some evidence of the decrease in merchandise, capital and, to a lesser extent people to people flows. By: Alicia García-Herrero Date: February 3, 2020 Topic: Global Economics & Governance After decades of increasing globalization both in trade, capital flows but even people to people movements, it seems the trend has turned towards deglobalization. This article shows some evidence of the decrease in merchandise, capital and, to a lesser...

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The US-China trade agreement will not put an end to geopolitical risks

The agreement between the US and China should not be read so positively in Europe, especially in GermanyThe reading of the global financial markets on the agreement reached between the United States and China has been positive, probably excessively, given the relatively limited size of the agreement reached. The best thing about the agreement is that it allows a truce – at least partial – in the strategic competition between China and the United States. This truce comes at a key moment for...

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Explaining the triumph of Trump’s economic recklessness

The Trump administration’s economic policy is a strange cocktail: one part populist trade protectionism and industrial interventionism; one part classic Republican tax cuts skewed to the rich and industry-friendly deregulation; and one part Keynesian fiscal and monetary stimulus. But it's the Keynesian part that delivers the kick. By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Date: January 29, 2020 Topic: Global Economics & Governance PARIS – Since he was elected US president, Donald Trump has done...

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Incorporating political risks into debt sustainability analysis

DSA applies to crisis countries only, but an early warning system identifying vulnerabilities is relevant for all countries. A more general, less stringent, debt vulnerabilities analysis (DVA) could be used to assess countries’ debt management policies and identify vulnerabilities, without leading immediately to policy consequences.When lenders such as the International Monetary Fund or the European Stability Mechanism want to assess whether a country meets the criteria for receiving...

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Factors determining Russia’s long-term growth rate

This paper’s main conclusion is that Russia’s economy cannot grow at the pace recorded in the early and mid-2000s because of the different external environment, the different stage of development and serious demographic headwinds.In the decade of the 2010s, the pace of economic growth in Russia slowed down to an annual rate of below 2% and most forecasts suggest that this is will be the new “normal” for the Russian economy at least in the medium-term. While politically and socially...

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Stability remains key to China

The most concerning aspect for the Chinese economy will still be to hold up domestic demand. The rapidly rising household debt will put further breaks of the households' ability to purchase durable goods2019 was a challenging year for China, featuring rapid growth deceleration. Consumption growth, long perceived as the key for China’s growth resilience, moved downwards significantly in 2019. What’s more, domestic investment remained sluggish, reflecting the shattered confidence among...

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Will Iran disrupt the global economy?

Last Friday, Qassem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ QUDS force, was killed by an American airstrike outside Baghdad airport. The Ayatollah was not pleased and Tehran has promised to retaliate. At the time of recording, the world is still waiting to see how Iran might respond. Some of have speculated that they could disrupt the world’s oil markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which acts as a vital artery for around a third of the world’s liquefied natural gas and...

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A decade to remember (or possibly to forget) for economists

2019 is coming to an end and so is the decade. How did economics change the world over the last ten years? And did the world change economics? Which economics books defined the last ten years? And what should we anticipate in the decade to come? Today, Nicholas Barrett discusses the past and the future with Niclas Poitiers and Maria Demertzis. By: The Sound of Economics Date: December 20, 2019 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

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