Friday , August 23 2019
Home / Tag Archives: On Economy

Tag Archives: On Economy

Writing on the Wall

  Not Adding Up One of the more disagreeable discrepancies of American life in the 21st century is the world according to Washington’s economic bureaus and the world as it actually is.  In short, things don’t add up.  What’s more, the propaganda is so far off the mark, it is downright insulting. Coming down from the mountain with the latest data tablet… [PT] The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports an unemployment rate of just 3.7...

Read More »

Interest Rate Watch and Bond Market Curiosities

  Things To Keep An Eye On Below is an overview of important US interest rates and yield curve spreads. In view of the sharp increase in stock market volatility, yields on government debt have continued to decline in a hurry. However, the flat to inverted yield curve has not yet begun to steep – which usually happens shortly before recessions and the associated bear markets begin. 2-year note yield, 3-month t-bill yield, 10-year note...

Read More »

Sovereign Bonds – Stretched to the Limit

  Anti-Vigilantes We dimly remember when Japanese government debt traded at a negative yield to maturity for the very first time. This happened at some point in the late 1990s or early 2000ds in secondary market trading (it was probably a shorter maturity than the 10-year JGB) and was considered quite a curiosity. If memory serves, it happened on just one brief occasion and it was widely held at the time that the absurd situation of a...

Read More »

Getting to a Special State of Ugly

  Suspicious Phrases There are certain phrases – like “trust me” or “I got this” – that should immediately provoke one’s suspicion.  When your slippery contractor tells you, “trust me, your kitchen renovation will be done before Christmas,” you should be wary.  There is no way it will be done before late spring. USD-CNH (offshore yuan) exchange rate – the support/resistance level at 7 finally breaks amid escalating trade war rhetoric....

Read More »

Do You Hear a Bell Ringing?

  Do You Hear a Bell Ringing? The sun shines brightest across the North American continent as we enter summer’s dog days.  Cold sweet lemonade is the refreshment of choice at ballparks and swimming holes alike.  Many people drink it after cutting the grass, or whenever else a respite from the heat and some thirst quenching satisfaction is needed. Regardless of whether companies were able to “beat estimates” (which as often happens,...

Read More »

Realizing the Full Implications of the Forthcoming Catastrophe

  Realizing the Full Implications of the Forthcoming Catastrophe “Facilis descensus Averno.” – Virgil (Publius Vergilius Maro) Delivering Tomorrow’s Curses Roman poet Virgil penned these words in his epic, The Aeneid, roughly a generation before the birth of Jesus of Nazareth.  They can be loosely translated to, “the descent to hell is easy.”  Those who’ve traversed this passage can attest to the veracity of this axiom. Virgil...

Read More »

Demonocracy: The Great Human Scourge!

  Demonocracy: The Great Human Scourge! Review: Christophe Buffin de Chosal, The End of Democracy, Translated by Ryan P. Plummer.  Printed in the U.S.A.: Tumblar House, 2017.   Christophe Buffin de Chosal: The End of Democracy. Needless to say, Buffin de Chosal is quite a controversial political philosopher. While this is not the first book trying to demystify modern-day democracy, such critical assessments are rare. One of the...

Read More »

Scientific Long-Term Study Confirms: Seasonality is the Best Investment Strategy!

  A Pleasant Surprise You can probably imagine that I am convinced of the merits of seasonality. However, even I was surprised that an investment strategy based on seasonality is apparently leaving numerous far more popular strategies in the dust. And yet, this is exactly what a recent comprehensive scientific study asserts – a study that probably considers a longer time span than most: it examines up to 217 years of market history! A...

Read More »

Tending Towards Maximum Perversity

    Tending Towards Maximum Perversity According to Finagle’s corollary to Murphy’s law, “Anything that can go wrong, will — at the worst possible moment.”  Taken a degree further, per O’Toole’s corollary of Finagle’s law, and the second law of thermodynamics, “The perversity of the Universe tends towards a maximum.” Murphy’s law in action… not even Murphy himself was safe from it. [PT] No doubt, the perverse effect of central...

Read More »

The Four Dimensions of the Fake Money Order

  A Good Story with Minor Imperfections “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there,” is a quote that’s oft misattributed to Lewis Carrol. The fact that there is ambiguity about who is behind this quote on ambiguity seems fitting. For our purposes today, the spirit of the quote is what we are after. We think it may help elucidate the strange and confusing world of fake money in which we all travel. Consumer...

Read More »