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Tag Archives: Precious Metals

Forensic Analysis of Fed Action on Silver Price

Forensic Analysis of Fed Action on Silver Price The last few days of trading in silver have been a wild ride. On Wednesday morning in New York, six hours before the Fed was to announce its interest rate hike, the price of silver began to drop. It went from around $22.65 to a low of $22.25 before recovering about 20 cents. At 2pm (NY time), the Fed made the announcement. The price had already begun spiking higher for about two minutes. As an...

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Time for a Silver Trade?

Time for a Silver Trade? The price of silver has been going down,and then down some more.From over $28 a year ago, and over $26.50 a month ago, it’s now at a new low under $22.50. Four bucks down in a month. However, it’s been behaving differently than gold behind the scenes. Let’s look at the gold and silver basis charts to see. Gold Fundamentals – Gold Basis Analysis The gold basis (i.e. abundance to the market) was humming along around...

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Oil, the Ruble and Gold Walk into a Bar…Part III

What A Gold Standard Isn’t Can we all recognize the simple fact that every government price-fixing scheme, ever, has failed? For example, banana republics have declared their pesos to be worth $1. But when the market decides to redeem pesos for dollars 1-to-1, the central bank abandons the peg. A less-understood example is when the Swiss National Bank decided to hold its franc down to €0.77. It boasted it could print as many francs as necessary to...

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Oil, the Ruble, and Gold Walk into a Bar…Part II

The Missing Link Often, Narratives pile up lots of baggage. To effectively deal with it, one must unpack it. One bit of luggage sticking up from the heap is the assertion that now the ruble has a link to oil. This is an indirect appeal to the wet street causes rain, i.e. that the price of oil set in dollars is why the dollar is the world’s reserve currency (and why the dollar has value). But it goes beyond merely this error. Ayn Rand said that, “in...

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Oil, the Ruble, and Gold Walk into a Bar…

Part I – Unpacking the Narrative of how Russia is going to change the global monetary system. There is a Narrative about Russia and how it will change the monetary system. Many analysts in the gold community are promoting this story. There’s just one problem with this Narrative. It is like how Michael Crichton described the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect, stating that the newspaper is full of stories explaining how “wet streets cause rain.” The basic...

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The HaloEffect

The Halo Effect It’s not fair. It seems everything claims to be <something something> gold. Oil is black gold. Melted cheese is liquid gold. There’s even red gold, a tomato company. It’s just not fair! It seems like a one-way street. They get to use (without paying!) the good name of gold, but gold gets nothing from them. How would you even say it? Gold is metallic petroleum? Or precious pasta sauce? One Gold to Rule Them All Speaking of...

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Human Action in the Silver Market

Human Action in the Silver Market We have recently seen an increase in social media posts about the big increase in short positions by the bullion banks. What would motivate them to short a commodity during this period of inflation, much less a monetary metal when central banks are printing money with reckless abandon? And doesn’t their shorting of silver push down the price? The retail trader is thinking about what price to bet on, in either...

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Gold and Silver: Breaking Out?

Gold and Silver: Breaking Out? Or Fundamentals Breaking Down? Two weeks ago, we published This is NOT the Silver Breakout You’re Looking For. The silver price had gone from $24 to over $26 and the gold price was up about $50/oz over the same period. Our basis indicator made it clear that the rapid runup in prices was driven primarily by paper traders buying futures contracts (with leverage). To say it was clear is an understatement. It was crystal....

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Ukraine and the Next Wave of Inflation, Part II, Can Russia Enact a Gold Standard?

Can Russia Enact a Gold Standard?   In Part I we discussed how the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine will lead to inflation, but not in the way most people think.  In Part II we discuss the possibility of Russia repudiating the dollar and going on a gold standard. Can they do it? How would the world react? Why not enact a Bitcoin Standard instead? The Russian central bank reportedly has over 2,000 tonnes of gold. We have seen three...

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This is Not the Silver Breakout You’re Looking For!

This is Not the Silver Breakout You’re Looking For! Every once in a while, one regrets not acting sooner, not acting soon enough. In our case, we did not publish this Tuesday evening. We should have. Today the price is down, and others may also call for lower silver prices. Oh well. They are not calling for that, based on the same indicator we observe – the silver basis. Silver Price Basis Chart Look at that moonshot! basis = future(bid) –...

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