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Tag Archives: Precious Metals

Gold and Silver Aren’t Getting Stronger

  The Dollar Increases in Value The dollar moved up, though most people would say gold fell about $40, and silver 32 cents. In the mainstream view, the value of the dollar is 1/N (N is the quantity). So how could the dollar go up? Certainly, the quantity keeps on increasing.   The buck.   Our view is different. If you borrow dollars to buy an asset, and the asset doesn’t generate enough yield to pay the interest, you have to sell or default. It should go without saying...

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Revenge of the Fundamentals

  A Wake-Up Call The price of gold moved down about twenty Federal Reserve Notes, and the price of silver dropped $0.57. The big news is that the gold-silver ratio moved up about 1.5. We hate to say “we told you so,” well, OK. Actually… sometimes there’s a certain je ne said quoi about gloating. *Achem* In all seriousness, the dollar is going up. We measure it in gold, or alternatively in silver. In gold, the dollar rose 0.4mg gold to 24.84. In silver, it was up 60mg to 1.88g silver. We...

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Precious Metals – Short Term Trading Update

  Not Easy, But There Remains Potential As equities continue to gyrate over respective medium term support levels I do not feel particularly tempted to get sucked into placing any haphazard directional plays.   The King of Bling Photo via picsofcelebrities.com   Precious metals are not making it easy for us either but appear to be more promising as there remains significant upside potential.   Gold (GC), hourly and daily – click to enlarge.   I’m...

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Gold Demand is Falling

  Confidence Not Lost Yet The price of gold moved down about sixteen bucks, while that of silver dropped about three dimes. In other words, the dollar gained 0.3 milligrams of gold and 0.04 grams of silver. We continue to read stories of the “loss of confidence in central banks.” We may not know the last detail of what that will look like—when it occurs one day.   Federal Reserve – still managing to maintain enough confidence Photo credit: Adam Fagen / Flickr   However,...

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Fresh Mainstream Nonsense on Gold Demand

  They Will Never Get It… We and many others have made a valiant effort over the years to explain what actually moves the gold market (as examples see e.g. our  article “Misconceptions About Gold”, or Robert Blumen’s excellent essay “Misunderstanding Gold Demand”).  Sometimes it is a bit frustrating when we realize it has probably all been for naught.   Gold wants to know what it has done now… Photo credit: Ajay Verma / Reuters   This was brought home to us again...

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Arizona Governor Ducey Vetoes Gold

  The Euthanasia of Widows and Orphans In my testimony in support of the gold legal tender bill this year, I discussed failing pension funds. Retirees who count on their pension checks are being told that their monthly check will be reduced by up to 60%.   Sound money also looks better than the government’s scrip!   This is devastating to them, obviously. What isn’t obvious is the cause. In the news coverage of this, the angry pensioners are blaming the union, the...

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Gold – The Commitments of Traders

  Commercial and Non-Commercial Market Participants The commitments of traders in gold futures are beginning to look a bit concerning these days – we will explain further below why this is so. Some readers may well be wondering why an explanation is even needed. Isn’t it obvious? Superficially, it sure looks that way.     As the following chart of the net position of commercial hedgers illustrates, their position is currently at quite an extended level:   Net...

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Gold Is Slowing

  A Loss of Momentum The price of gold moved down slightly this week, while that of silver dropped more substantially—1.9%. We don’t see much decrease in the enthusiasm yet from this minor setback. This was a shortened week due to the May Day holiday outside the US.   Photo credit: R.P. Visual   Let’s look at the only true picture of supply and demand fundamentals. First, here’s the graph of the metals’ prices.   Gold and silver prices – click to enlarge....

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Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting, Q2 2016

  A New Bull Market in Gold? On April 10, the Incrementum Fund’s advisory board held its quarterly meeting. Two of the regulars (Zac Bharucha and Rahim Taghizadegan) were unable to attend this time, but we were joined by special guest Brent Johnson, the CEO of Santiago Capital. The transcript of the meeting with all charts can be downloaded further below.   Gold, June futures contract, daily  – click to enlarge.   As indicated above, the main (but not the...

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Gold and Gold Stocks – Is the Correction Finally Beginning?

  Triangle Thrust and Reversal In mid April, we discussed weekly resistance levels in the HUI Index. Given the recent almost blow-off like move in the index and its subsequent reversal, we decided to provide a brief update on the situation. First, here is a daily chart comparing the HUI, the HUI-gold ratio and gold:   After building another triangle, the HUI has delivered an upside thrust in the direction of the preceding trend. This is quite normal, and so is the subsequent ...

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