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Tag Archives: Recession

Blackout Of Buybacks Threatens Bullish Run

With the last half of March upon us, the blackout of stock buybacks threatens to reduce one of the liquidity sources supporting the bullish run this year. If you don’t understand the importance of corporate share buybacks and the blackout periods, here is a snippet of a 2023 article I previously wrote. “The chart below via Pavilion Global Markets shows the impact stock buybacks have had on the market over the last decade. The decomposition of returns for the...

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Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings

Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites. “Such is unsurprising, given that retail investors often fall victim to the psychological behavior of the “fear of missing out.” The chart below shows the “dumb money index” versus the S&P...

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Presidential Elections And Market Corrections

Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies. From a portfolio management perspective, we must understand what happens during election years concerning the stock market and investor returns. Since 1833, the S&P 500 index has...

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Fed Chair Powell Just Said The Quiet Part Out Loud

Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economists’ estimates and seemed to defy logic. Such is particularly the case when you read commentary about the state of the average American as follows. “New...

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Rethinking “safe” investments

Part I of II by Claudio Grass, Hünenberg See, Switzerland To most observant citizens and diligent investors it is surely quite obvious that the current monetary, fiscal and banking system is inherently flawed, hopelessly unjust, corrupt, unsustainable and simply destined to collapse sooner or later. With every (predictable) recession and every (foreseeable) crisis, this structure gets weaker; its very own architects increasingly second-guess it, mistrust and...

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Rethinking “safe” investments

Part I of II by Claudio Grass, Hünenberg See, Switzerland To most observant citizens and diligent investors it is surely quite obvious that the current monetary, fiscal and banking system is inherently flawed, hopelessly unjust, corrupt, unsustainable and simply destined to collapse sooner or later. With every (predictable) recession and every (foreseeable) crisis, this structure gets weaker; its very own architects increasingly second-guess it, mistrust and question it and the...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Look Up In The Sky! It’s A UFO! Or Not!

As I sit here writing this Sunday afternoon, the US has just shot down a third UFO in the last 3 days in addition to the Chinese “weather” balloon last week. I have no insight into what these things might be but I do wonder if we haven’t declared war on the National Weather Service. The federal government has become so sprawling that it could easily  be the case that NORAD has no idea what the NWS has up in the air. And with all the UFO shooting going on, the NWS...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Happy Days Are Here Again!

Your cares and troubles are gone There’ll be no more from now on! Happy days are here again! The skies above are clear again Let us sing a song of cheer again Happy days are here again! Lyrics: Jack Yellen, Music: Milton Ager That’s certainly how it’s felt since the turn of the new year with the NASDAQ up nearly 15%, European stocks continuing to recover, emerging markets anticipating a Chinese recovery and a solid January for the S&P 500. Bonds have been...

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Poor US Data Cast Doubts on New Found Hopes of a Soft-Landing

Overview:  Yesterday's string of dismal US economic data delivered a material blow to those still thinking that a soft-landing was possible. Retail sales by the most in the a year. Manufacturing output fell by nearly 2.5% in the last two months of 2022. Bad economic news weighed on US stocks. The honeymoon of New Year may have ended yesterday. The US 10-year yield fell below 3.40% for the first time since the middle of last September. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow...

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Weekly Market Pulse: The Consensus Will Be Wrong

What’s your outlook for this year? I’ve heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you’re reading this hoping I’ll let you have a peak at my crystal ball, you’re going to be disappointed. Because I don’t have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business. So, no, I don’t know what’s going to happen this year. I do know what the consensus view is, what the majority expects to happen, and that may be more useful. Because...

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