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Tag Archives: The Stock Market

Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength

  Gold Sector Outperforms Broad Market The gold sector is in an uptrend since September 2018. The initially rather labored move accelerated after a secondary low was established in May 2019 and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages were breached for the second time. Last week the two moving averages were once again overcome in the course of the post-crash rebound. Here is a chart showing the entire move since 2018: After a rather...

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The Corona Virus Epidemic – Going Global

    Containment Fail We want to share a few observations about the growing COVID-19 epidemic, based on what we have seen so far. It has been obvious for a while now that the attempt to contain the spread of the virus has essentially failed. Ever since case numbers started to soar in South Korea, Italy and Iran, it was clear that hopes that the outbreak would remain confined to China were misplaced.   Doubleplus-ungood micro-organism...

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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches

  Post Hoc Fallacy On Tuesday, at the precise moment Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell commenced delivering his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee, something unpleasant happened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) didn’t go up. Rather, it went down. The Fed chair and His Magnificence, God Emperor, Field Marshall & Stable Genius, POTUS Donald J. Trump: a complicated relationship. [PT]...

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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year

  An Example of Strong Single Stock Seasonality Many individual stocks exhibits phases of seasonal strength. Being invested in these phases is therefore an especially promising strategy. Danish drug company Novo Nordisk Today I want to introduce you to a stock that tends to advance particularly strongly at this time of the year: Novo Nordisk. The Danish pharmaceutical group supplies a broad range of products and is a global market...

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The Strongest Seasonal Advance in Precious Metals Stocks Begins Now

  Bonanza Season In the 18 December 2019 issue of Seasonal Insights I discussed the strong seasonal advance in precious metals around the turn of the year. In silver it begins in mid December and continues until the end of February. A roughly similar pattern can be observed in platinum and palladium, while seasonal buoyancy is at least to some degree evident in gold as well. Long-term silver and platinum seasonal charts from the late...

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US Stock Market  – Sentiment and Positioning

  Market Drivers The recent outbreak of a dangerous respiratory illness caused by a new Corona virus in China was widely blamed for the stock market sell-off on Monday last week. It is undoubtedly true that the epidemic has the potential to severely disrupt economic activity, although it is too early to come to a definitive conclusion about that. Be that as it may, the event actually serves as an excellent example illustrating that the...

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Spitting in Uber’s Soup

  Disrupted Disruptor – Legal Setback Sweepstakes It seems Uber just can’t catch a break these days. First its license to operate in London was revoked. At issue was apparently that 43 unlicensed drivers were able to take an estimated 14,000 “unauthorized trips” due to a flaw in the Uber app (note that 45,000 licensed Uber drivers are working in London) . Uber’s service has become an important part of London’s transport infrastructure...

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Riding the Type 3 Mega Market Melt Up Train

  Beta-driven Fantasy The decade long bull market run, aside from making everyone ridiculously rich, has opened up a new array of competencies. The proliferation of ETFs, for instance, has precipitated a heyday for the ETF Analyst. So, too, blind faith in data has prompted the rise of Psychic Quants… who see the future by modeling the past. Gandalf, quant of Middle-Earth, dispensing sage advice. [PT] For the big financial outfits,...

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The Golden Autumn Season – One of the Most Reliable Seasonal Patterns Begins

    The Strongest Seasonal Stock Market Trend Readers may already have guessed: when the vibrant colors of the autumn leaves are revealed in all their splendor, the strongest seasonal period of the year begins in the stock market – namely the year-end rally. Will Santa wake up this year? Last year he was clearly missing in action – but that is actually the exception, not the rule [PT] Stocks typically rise in this time period....

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Don’t Be Another Wall Street Chump

  The Future and the Past Securities and Exchange Commission Rule 156 requires financial institutions to advise investors to not be idiots. Hence, the disclosure pages of nearly every financial instrument in the U.S. are embedded with the following admission or variant thereof: “Past Performance Is Not Indicative of Future Results” “Buy and hold”… “The market goes always up”… “No-one can time the market”… “Buy the dip” “With what? You...

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