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Tag Archives: trade war

From globalization to deglobalization: Zooming into trade

External PublicationThis article shows some evidence of the decrease in merchandise, capital and, to a lesser extent people to people flows. By: Alicia García-Herrero Date: February 3, 2020 Topic: Global Economics & Governance After decades of increasing globalization both in trade, capital flows but even people to people movements, it seems the trend has turned towards deglobalization. This article shows some evidence of the decrease in merchandise, capital and, to a lesser...

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The US-China trade agreement will not put an end to geopolitical risks

The agreement between the US and China should not be read so positively in Europe, especially in GermanyThe reading of the global financial markets on the agreement reached between the United States and China has been positive, probably excessively, given the relatively limited size of the agreement reached. The best thing about the agreement is that it allows a truce – at least partial – in the strategic competition between China and the United States. This truce comes at a key moment for...

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Lessons from the China-US trade truce

The tentatively agreed deal between China and the United States temporarily stops a dangerous dynamic, yet it falls far short of the negotiating objectives of both sides. US trade policy has become a dominion of the executive branch guided principally by the President’s electoral interests. Meanwhile, China demonstrates its capacity to resist pressure: it will enact structural reforms at its own pace in line with its interests. Sadly, the deal confirms that the United States no longer feels...

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Watch out for China’s currency in case of no-deal scenario

The U.S. and China’s negotiations on a phase-one deal seem to have stalled again. The market was already aware of the limited nature of the likely deal, but was still hoping for it. Against this backdrop, the investors have reacted negatively to the increased likelihood of not reaching a deal on December 15. If this is the case, the U.S. will apply additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The obvious question to address, thus, is, what can happen to China under such a scenario?We first need to...

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Hong Kong’s Economy is in Danger of Further Contraction

Approaching the end of a volatile year, Hong Kong continues to face the triple whammy of slower growth in mainland China, the trade war uncertainty and social unrest.Approaching the end of a volatile year, Hong Kong continues to face the triple whammy of slower growth in mainland China, the trade war uncertainty and social unrest.While the former two external risks are not in the hands of Hong Kong and are subject to global development, the escalated social unrest and the lack of fiscal...

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Implications of the Japan – United States Mini Trade Agreement

Details of the US-Japan mini-trade deal are lacking but the agreements’ direct impact on the US and Japanese economies is likely to be minuscule. The deal seems to have been made to compensate American farmers – a crucial electoral base of the President – for their losses from the trade war with China.On 25th of September,  President Trump and Prime Minister Abe concluded a partial trade-agreement whose main provisions are to reduce Japan’s tariffs on some agricultural goods and to reduce US...

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Questions to the High Representative and Vice-President-designate Josep Borrell

Josep Borrell, the incoming High Representative and Vice-President-designate must explain how von der Leyen’s ‘geopolitical Commission’ intends to adapt to a global landscape dominated by an intensifying rivalry between Washington and Bejing. By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Date: September 30, 2019 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance In her mission letter, President-elect von der Leyen emphasises that she wants the next Commission to be a ‘geopolitical Commission’. She envisages a...

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The EU is in the US trade war crosshairs. It should further raise its game

The incoming European Commission faces a dilemma on the transatlantic trade relationship, because of the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration. The EU must rally its citizens; the greater the divides between member states and EU institutions, the lesser the chances are of forging effective policies toward the United States and China.The incoming European Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen faces a dilemma on the transatlantic trade relationship because of the unpredictable...

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Trump’s Backfiring Trade Policy

President Trump’s radical trade policy continues, as do trade disputes with China. The president promised to sign far better trade deals, ensure fair treatment of American firms and reduce the United States’ trade deficit. None of these objectives have been met.Thirty months into President Trump’s radical trade policy, and as the trade disputes with China escalate and risk turning into a currency war, it is time to take stock.The president promised to sign far better trade deals, ensure fair...

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