Friday , August 7 2020
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Tag Archives: Uncategorized

The shortest recession ever – unemployment will be below 6% in November

After US unemployment rose to nearly 15% (in April) I wrote a blog post forecasting unemployment would be back below 6% in November. That got me a lot of attention and a lot of suggestions for bets on the numbers (I have accepted a lot of these wagers). Today, we got the US labor market report for May. It is a massive confirmation on my bullish call on the US labor market. US (non-farm) employment rose by 3 million in May and unemployment dropped to 13.3% in May from 14.7% in...

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Why have epidemiological forecasts been so wrong and what to do about it

Why have epidemiological forecasts been so wrong and what to do about it If we look at the forecasts, we got from epidemiologists initially in the Covid-19 pandemic it has turned out that they have massively wrong. While tragic the number of people who has died in this pandemic has been much lower than forecasted. The reason given by epidemiologists then is that that is because of interventions – lockdowns. But then you made the wrong kind of forecast – you forgot to forecast what would...

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Presentation on the US economy and markets (in Danish)

Warning – this is in Danish. Her til eftermiddag har jeg haft fornøjelsen for første gang at optræde på SpeakerBee. Temaet var markederne og økonomien – primært i USA. Jeg taler blandt andet om udsigterne for væksten og arbejdsmarkedet i USA – jeg er meget optimistisk – og for det amerikanske aktiemarkeder, hvor jeg er knap så optimistisk. Hør og se, hvordan det hænger sammen her. Hvis du vil have mig ud til en præsentation eller arrangere et webinar eller lignene, så kontakt mit speaker...

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When Americans vote in November unemployment will be below 6%

Friday’s US labour market report rightly got a lot of media attention globally. The spike in US unemployment to 15% surely is historical and tells us quite a bit about just how big a shock has hit the US and the global economy. However, where most commentators are wrong is assuming that this has to be seen as a normal recession. I on the other hand would argue that this has little to do with a normal recession. In fact I am increasingly thinking that the use of the term ‘recession’ is a...

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The Corona Crisis – a Scandinavian perspective.

Today Swedish journalist Nathalie Besèr and I have had a talk about the economic and political perspectives on the corona crisis from a Scandinavian perspective. We among other things talk about the different policies in the Scandinavian countries and look at the economic consequences of the crisis. Share this:Like this:Like Loading...

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Racing against COVID-19: a vaccines strategy for Europe

This Policy Contribution proposes a staged support scheme to tackle the COVID-19 vaccine challenge and a moon shot programme to meet the challenge of future pandemics. The fast development of vaccines is an essential part of the long-term solution to COVID-19, but vaccine development has high costs and carries the risk of high failure rates. There are currently too few promising projects in the clinical trial pipeline to guarantee at least one vaccine soon. More projects need to pass...

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ONE factor explains most of the differences in Covid19 deaths across countries

As an economist I am not happy about going into having strong views on the causes of why people die from Covid19, but at least I can have a look at correlations. It has been very clear for some time that very few people younger than 50 years old die from Covid19. In fact the average of people dying with Covid19 have been around 80 years in most countries and men are more likely to die than women. These simple facts made me think – how much of this can explain the different mortality rates...

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All set for a fast recovery after the ‘Great Lockdown’

In 2005, Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in the US state of Louisiana. The hurricane caused enormous material destruction and about 2,000 people perished. While Katrina obviously cannot be compared to Covid19 in terms material devastation and death it nonetheless is comparable in terms of the sudden the “shutdown” of the economy. Katrina was a very clear case of a supply shock. Production facilities were simply shut down. And in the same way as today, it happened from one day to the...

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A talk with the Icelandic Minister of Finance on the corona crisis

Everyday at 1000 CET I do a Facebook Live Update on the economic and financial consequences of the corona shock. It is normally in Danish but today I did it in English because I had invited the Icelandic Minister of Finance Bjarni Benediktsson to join me for a talk about Iceland’s response to the corona shock. You can watch the talk here and you can follow me on Facebook here. Share this:Like this:Like Loading...

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COVID-19 Fiscal response: What are the options for the EU Council?

It is time for the EU Council to make quick progress on the fiscal front and announce something as soon as possible to show that it taken full measure of the severity of the situation. As the COVID-19 pandemic intensifies, and now that Europe has become one of its epicentres, voices are raised among EU countries in support of a common and significant European response to deal with the health situation and the related economic crisis currently unfolding. Many options are currently discussed in...

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